Colleges and training providers in line for £35m slice of the Turing Scheme

Around a third of the funding pot set aside for the Turing Scheme will go to further education providers, FE Week can reveal.

£105 million in total has been promised to pay for 35,000 placements for the UK’s new international student exchange programme, which is set to get underway in September.

In an interview with FE Week, Ecorys, the co-delivery partner with the British Council for the Turing Scheme, revealed that £35 million will go to further education, £60 million will go to universities and £10 million to schools.

This roughly equates to about 10,000 further education placements, 20,000 higher education placements and 5,000 school placements.

The scheme, named after scientist Alan Turing, was unveiled in December as the replacement to the UK’s participation in Erasmus+ following Brexit.

It will allow students to study and work abroad on placements ranging from between two weeks and 12 months.

Bids for a slice of the funding are set to launch this month and the Department for Education plans to issue funding decisions in July.

A new Turing Scheme programme guide was published on Wednesday and provides detail of how the funding will work.

For FE providers, they will get £315 per participant in “organisational support” for the first 100 participants, and £180 for groups bigger than that.

In terms of travel costs, they will receive a fixed amount depending how far away the destination is. For sending learners anywhere between 100 to 499 km away it’s £165 – while visiting Tanzania, for instance, at 11,000 km, would qualify for £905.

Learners will also get £135 each to access language resources if they are going away to a non-English speaking country for more than 19 days.  

Turing Scheme
READ MORE: Turing Scheme to open for bids next month

Thereafter, daily funds will depend on whether the learner and accompanying staff member is in a group 1, 2 or 3 destination country, which is ranked according to local living costs.

Learners in group 1 countries get £109 a day for two weeks, and £76 a day after that. Those in group 2 countries get £94 a day then £66 a day, and those in group 3 countries get £80 a day and £56 a day after that. 

Meanwhile, FE providers need to identify the “anticipated points of expenditure” when they will require the funds. They will be paid 80 per cent of costs at these points, with the final 20 per cent once a special report is completed showing all went to plan.

FE providers will also need to undergo “financial capacity checks” before their application is accepted.

Read more about the upcoming Turing Scheme and how it may differ from Erasmus+ in tomorrow’s edition of FE Week.

ESFA announces new subcontracting cap

The volume of subcontracted training will be capped at 25 per cent for providers from next year – but plans for a further phased reduction beyond this amount have been binned.

However, providers will be allowed to submit a request to be exempt from the cap.

Further details about reforms to FE subcontracting were published today by the Education and Skills Funding Agency following its consultation outcome published in June.

Many of the measures have stayed the same, but there are some important clarifications.

The most significant for providers will be the ESFA’s decision to introduce a straight 25 per cent cap on subcontracted provision from 2022/23.

The agency’s consultation had proposed that the cap should be further reduced to 17.5 per cent in the following year and then to 10 per cent the year after.

But most respondents disagreed with the proposal and the agency then set off to further evaluate the “right threshold”.

Today’s updated guidance said: “By 2022 to 2023, we do not expect any provider (excluding local authorities and European Social Fund provision) to be subcontracting 25 per cent or more of their provision unless they have written permission from us to do so.”

There is no further detail about which providers would qualify to be exempt from the cap.

The ESFA previously asked all providers to produce a plan during the 2020 autumn term setting out how they will achieve a reduction in their volume of subcontracted activity over the next three academic years

For providers who are currently subcontracting 25 per cent or more of their provision, the ESFA said it will conduct a “targeted exercise, writing to providers to request a copy of their reduction plan (if we do not receive an exemption case) to inform the progress that providers have made in their plans for a reduction across the three years”.

Another key change announced today is that the adult education budget has been removed from the agency’s proposal for prior approval for whole programme subcontracting.

The ESFA’s consultation had proposed to introduce “stricter controls on the circumstances in which the whole of a learner’s programme could be subcontracted, and providers will be required to obtain agreement from the ESFA before doing so”.

This rule will now only be introduced for students whose whole programme of 16 to 19 provision is subcontracted from 2021/22.

The agency said it concluded that introducing “such a requirement for AEB programmes above a specified length is not practical and we will not be proceeding with this”.

 

We are not prohibiting or banning all subcontracting

ESFA chief executive Eileen Milner embarked on a major review of subcontracting in 2019, expressing concerns about the “continued rise” in cases of fraud linked to subcontracting arrangements managed by agency.

subcontracting
Eileen Milner

The ESFA has since announced a series of measures it will take to “significantly” reduce subcontracting in FE over the next three years.

In publishing the additional detail about the measures today, the agency made clear they are not “prohibiting or banning” all subcontracting.

“Where it is done well, for the right reasons, and properly overseen, it can enhance the learner experience and add value,” they added.

Association of Employment and Learning Providers chief policy officer Simon Ashworth welcomed today’s changes.

“The adult education budget not being included in the whole programme subcontracting proposal is a common sense approach,” he said.

“Jointly delivering qualifications and joint delivery of training programmes are two very different beasts, and the exclusion should be welcomed.

“On the cap, we’ve moved away from the blunt and arbitrary phased reduction over three years as first muted, which is a positive change. The ESFA is now proposing a threshold of 25 per cent, but it will helpfully allow providers to submit for an exemption.”

When best-in-class tech meets best-in-class accreditation

Irrespective of the scale of the educational institution, there’s always a case for improving efficiencies and delivering more effective learning infrastructure. To thrive in the next normal, the parameters of innovation will need to be reimagined for educational institutions across the board. Thankfully, they can lean on the experts to help fine-tune and enhance their digital transformation efforts, while keeping an open mind in terms of where this pursuit of innovation can take their programmes. 

Out of necessity, the steady march towards digital-led educational solutions has now become an unrelenting race, as dated programs and the associated inefficiencies are forcing educational institutions to innovate at pace. Luckily, advances in EdTech have crystalised at a most opportune time, presenting major opportunities for enhanced learning experiences that are accessible 24/7, easily deployable, and customisable. The latest innovations are enabling quicker connections, more flexible routines, higher levels of learner independence and more effective remote training. 

In this author’s opinion, and based on prevailing sentiments of key stakeholders in the education space, legacy solutions aren’t up to the task. Forewarning: it’s time for an unvarnished assessment of current offerings. We’ve seen the ‘Traditional Brands’ fall behind due to poor learner experience, poor support systems and antiquated technology – resting on laurels, out-paced and out-thought, and now, out-delivered.

 

Charting this new path forward

Face-to-face training has been the norm for many years, and while this environment will endure post-pandemic, it will undoubtedly be bolstered by robust digital infrastructure and more scalable online learning solutions. A large percentage of today’s workforce were born in the digital age, which means they’re more focused on user engagement, and less concerned with upholding the status quo of legacy brands. Simply put, sub-par solutions will not resonate with today’s digital-savvy learner.

NOCN’s strategic five-year partnership with Olive Group is geared towards making breakthrough innovation accessible to large swathes of learners across the UK and globally, with a best-in-class virtual learning platform. The signature initiative of this partnership is the vLearn platform – a customisable, easy-to-use Virtual Learning Environment built to empower tutors and learners by utilising cutting-edge technology.

The first phase of NOCN’s partnership with Olive Group, announced in December of last year, was designed to provide market-leading virtual support materials tailored for apprentices across some of the most popular Apprenticeship Standards in the UK. It used to be enough to hold a trades certificate to get out on site, but today, that simply won’t suffice. What’s required is modern qualifications, a smart Jobcard and access to digital platforms, and at NOCN Group, you can get all of this under one roof. At NOCN Group we offer all levels of qualifications, all levels of bespoke accreditation and all levels of apprenticeships. 

Following a very successful phase one, we are extending the reach of vLearn ten-fold. For phase two, the platform will be rolled out to the wider NOCN Group as the first part of a 5-year project to deliver unrivalled digital support to customers, boosting the delivery of qualifications, virtual classroom and one-to-many online exam proctoring. This means vLearn will be available to all NOCN Group Training Centres, the first clients onboard is one of the U.K Leading Education Providers, Newcastle College Group and NHS Trust.

With vLearn, NOCN and Olive Group are focused on providing clients with the technology to dramatically pivot from the mediocrity of outdated delivery models. We’re also equipped to scale our partner organisations with emerging technologies and high-end interactive digital content. An Enhanced Learning Experience (ELX) is no longer a ‘nice to have,’ it is intrinsically linked to the success of any Training Organisation in today’s market.

The scale and breadth of Olive Group’s network and unrivalled technological prowess will play a central role in maximising the potential impact of vLearn. Together, we will work to extend the reach of tutor support for qualifications and bespoke accreditation, assessment materials and mock examination content, as well as 100’s of ready-to-go digital-learning courses. Our strategic partnership with Olive Group represents a confluence of market-leading technology with specialists in accreditation – all in the name of improving the accessibility of innovative EdTech solutions. We also recognise the pertinent need for this type of solution and pent-up market demand, and we are proud to work alongside Olive Group in charting a new path forward for learners.

NOCN’s expansive catalogue of course material includes STEM, business admin, construction and financial services, meaning the scope of our work with Olive Group will be substantial. NOCN’s Skills for Life and employability qualifications are providing much needed support to learners who want to advance their career prospects and pursue new opportunities during this period of flux – a vision Olive Group is firmly aligned with. Given our group’s clear synergies, we are excited to immediately start delivering tangible benefits to learners across the educational spectrum.

Innovative new tools, if leveraged correctly, can transform the manner in which learners engage with their curricula, and each other, while accommodating unprecedented levels of collaboration and seamless assessment. Automation, Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, ChatBots – these are the new strands of focus for digitally equipped educational institutions.

 

vLearn: A timely solution

The timing of this partnership is also noteworthy, particularly after a year of on-off remote learning, during which some of the inherent challenges have been thrust into focus. The wider system is calling out for a purpose-built solution that addresses the prevalent challenges, while alleviating the tech burden on education providers and their students. vLearn has all-inclusive features including Virtual Classroom, Learning Management System (LMS), Content Curation, Assessments, Data/MI, as well as a modern user interface and intuitive content curation framework to ensure content is being presented to learners in the most effective way possible. 

Think about it for a second – how do people consume content or experiences in the digital world today? Does that tally with the ‘traditional’ EdTech solutions? Not only does it not tally, the chasm between expectation and reality is wide. With vLearn, we wanted to design a purpose-built learning experience that is familiar to the digital natives, the swipers, scrollers, and touch screen aficionados. If you look at platforms like Spotify, Netflix, Amazon, Tiktok, and YouTube there is a framework that caters to these consumers. It’s about time they had an educational equivalent.

With vLearn, students and tutors can interact seamlessly with interactive whiteboards and screensharing, project work can be initiated in breakout rooms, and assessments can be carried out securely and efficiently. vLearn can be easily deployed by educational institutions with expansive curricula, or enterprises with bespoke training material. Businesses can also leverage vLearn to onboard new staff with training modules, deliver existing courses online, or develop new material for the upskilling of current staff.

Having trained more than two million people across the world with digital learning content in 27 languages, Olive Group is well positioned to drive innovative solutions forward, and we’re proud to be working alongside the Olive team on this shared mission. By taking the best of accreditation, and combining that with the best of digital, tutors and learners can thrive in a hybrid model of education delivery in 2021 and beyond.

 

Re-defining the EdTech landscape

For innovation to truly catch on, it needs to be informed by evolving consumer trends. Unlike some of our competitors, NOCN Group and Olive Group have our fingers on the pulse of what prospective learners are looking for, and we are guided by their perspective. Accommodating changing tastes involves abandoning the siloed thinking that has, for too long, placed a glass ceiling over EdTech innovation.

vLearn makes that experience as intuitive as possible, such as, easy onboarding, two-way tutor and learner instant communication, and state of the art, bite-size digital learning material. In today’s boundless content landscape, material needs to be direct, succinct, and concise. In other words, get to the point. Additionally, vLearn can easily interface with existing platforms such as ‘MS Teams’ to create and access the Virtual Learning Environment efficiently. vLearn creates an intuitive, personalised enhanced learning experience, and you don’t need to be ultra-proficient with tech to make the transition.

If your educational institute has aspirations to pursue international partnerships, we have you covered as well. At NOCN Group, we work with centres in 30 different countries across the globe.

As the global community continues to grapple with the many challenges brought on by the pandemic, the case for extending the accessibility of education has never been stronger. While there is light at the end of the tunnel with regards to the vaccine rollout, the crisis has put an immense strain on the educational pursuits of learners across every realm of study. This extends to workers engaging in upskilling courses, professionals pursuing reskilling programs, college students getting to grips with online curricula, or school goers learning over video calls.

There is a very real and present opportunity for institutions to pursue innovative EdTech solutions with vigour, and to take an active role in shaping the future educational landscape. This new landscape will be redefined by automated processes, dynamic deployments of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, and a more seamless, user-centric experience. We look forward to disrupting mediocrity with Enhanced Learner Experiences – For Business, For Learning, For Life.

 

Contact your NOCN Group Business Development Manager at business-enquiries@nocn.org.uk to become a part of the vLearn experience.

 

Budget 2021: What the chancellor announced for FE and skills

Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered his spring budget today and confirmed a number of new investments for the FE and skills sector.

They include a doubling of apprentice incentive payments for employers, a further boost to traineeships and a new “Help to Grow” scheme for small businesses to upskill.

FE Week has the key points:

 

  1. Cash incentives for employers to hire new apprentices doubled

Apprenticeship financial incentives were first introduced by Sunak in August and currently offer firms £2,000 to take on apprentices aged 16 to 24, while those that employ new apprentices aged 25 and over are paid £1,500.

The chancellor said today that the bonuses, set to end this month, will be extended for a further six months to September.

And any employers who hire a new apprentice between 1 April 2021 and 30 September 2021 will receive £3,000 per new hire, regardless of the apprentice’s age.

This is on top of the £1,000 payment already provided for new apprentices aged 16 to 18 and those under 25 with an Education, Health and Care Plan, meaning that some employers could receive £4,000 in total.

 

  1. £126m for traineeships

Sunak said the government will provide an additional £126 million in England for “high quality” work placements and training for 16- to 24-year-olds in the 2021/22 academic year.

This is hoped to attract a further 40,000 traineeship starts next year. Employers who provide trainees with work experience will continue to be funded at a rate of £1,000 per trainee.

It builds on the £111 million the chancellor set aside in 2020/21 to triple the number of traineeships.

 

  1. ‘Portable’ apprenticeships set to be launched

The government will introduce a £7 million fund from July 2021 to “help employers in England set up and expand portable apprenticeships”.

The budget document says this will enable people who need to work across multiple projects with different employers, such as in the TV and film industries, to “benefit from the high quality long-term training that an apprenticeship provides”.

Employers will be “invited to bring forward proposals here, and in particular the Creative Industries Council will be asked to do so in recognition of the potential benefits of this new approach for the creative sector”.

Trailed last Friday, the Treasury called this scheme “flexi-job” apprenticeships. The first of these are  expected to start in January 2022.

 

  1. ‘Help to Grow’ scheme for SMEs to upskill

The budget document says the government will offer a new UK-wide management programme to upskill 30,000 small and medium-sized enterprises over three years.

It states: “Developed in partnership with industry, the programme will combine a national curriculum delivered through business schools with practical case studies and mentoring from experienced business professionals.

“Over 12 weeks, and 90 per cent subsidised by government, this programme will equip SMEs with the tools to grow their businesses and thrive.”

The budget’s costing document shows the government has set aside £60 million for this scheme in 2021-22 and then £75 million for 2022-23.

It is unclear at this stage what government department will be responsible for this scheme.

FE providers to receive free batch of face masks to aid reopening

FE providers will each receive up to 7,500 face masks from government for free as they reopen to more students from next week.

A key new recommendation for onsite teaching from March 8 is for all students and staff to wear face coverings in the classroom until at least Easter.

Under Department for Education guidance, officials “expect” every 16-to-19 student will “attend their FE provider in person and will undertake the majority of their planned hours on site”. Adult learners will also return but a more flexible mix of remote learning can be used for them.

To support the return of onsite education and to ensure “maximum compliance with the system of controls”, the Department of Health and Social Care is distributing ‘Type IIR’ disposable medical masks to FE providers.

Announcing the move today, the Education and Skills Funding Agency said this supply is for “use only as the settings’ contingency stock of face coverings”.

face masks
READ MORE: Colleges and FE providers to reopen in full from March 8, PM announces

FE providers should expect to receive a delivery of between 5,000 and 7,500 units by the end of the week commencing 8 March and be “sufficient to cover your contingency stock until the Easter, with larger settings receiving further stock if required”.

For any queries on delivery or missing items, providers are told to contact the DHSC PPE helpline on 0800 8766802, identifying as an education setting, or email dfeppequeries@unipart.com.

Telecoms firms extend free data offer to FE students

Telecoms companies have extended their free data offer to young and disadvantaged students in further education just as they are about to return for face-to-face teaching.

It was announced by the government today that mobile providers including EE, Lycamobile, Sky Mobile, Tesco Mobile, Virgin Mobile, BT Mobile, Vodaphone and iD Mobile have all agreed to widen the offer beyond school-aged children.

The extension will now apply to students aged 16 to 19 and those aged 19 to 25 with an education, health and care plan.

In its weekly update, the Education and Skills Funding Agency said: “During the Covid-19 outbreak a number of mobile network operators are offering free data for financially disadvantaged families who do not have broadband at home and rely on mobile data to access the internet to help children participate in education remotely.

“Although, from the 8 March, the majority of students will be expected to return to onsite education, this offer may continue to be important for students who, for example, need to self-isolate or shield during this period.”

This means that FE providers who have registered with the government’s “Get Help with Technology Service” will be able to request free data for financially disadvantaged students who: do not have fixed broadband at home; cannot afford additional data for their devices; are experiencing disruption to face-to-face education.

The free data scheme was made available to school students to help them learn remotely during the national lockdown and is currently set to end in July.

Requests for free data must be made by someone in an FE provider who has been “nominated to order devices through the Get Help with Technology Service”, the ESFA said.

“Providers will need to submit student’s mobile information through our online service.”

The agency added that if increasing mobile data is not a suitable option for some young people, or if a request for additional data is unsuccessful, FE providers can also request 4G wireless routers.

And when providers request support, the Department for Education will “seek confirmation about how you have identified the number of disadvantaged students without broadband at home, who are experiencing disruption to their onsite education, through for example, contact with students/parents and/or surveys.

“In providing evidence of need you should not include any personal information about the students such as their names, addresses or date of birth.”

Today’s announcement comes six weeks after the DfE extended its free digital devices scheme to independent training providers.

Sunak’s flagship Budget policy risks squeezing out young people

Offering employers incentives regardless of an apprentice’s age in the Budget was completely the wrong call, writes Tom Richmond

“Our country’s future will be built by the next generation, so it’s vital that we harness the talent of young people as we rebuild from the pandemic,” said Chancellor Rishi Sunak in November last year, and he was right.

Younger workers aged 16 to 24 have accounted for nearly half of the total fall in employment during the economic slump. Previous recessions have shown it can take years for raised unemployment levels among young people to recede.

On that basis, you might assume that the Chancellor would seek to unashamedly boost the employment prospects of young people.

If that is what you were expecting from the Budget, you were in for a bumpy ride.

‘Make incentive payments permanent’

In the heyday of traineeships in 2015-16, they were creating around 24,000 opportunities a year for 16- to 24- year-olds, so they could go on to start an apprenticeship, new job or return to education.

But by 2020, the number of traineeships had fallen by half. So seeing the Treasury invest in traineeships last summer, in the spending review last autumn and now again in the Budget is a long-overdue but welcome recognition of the potential of this programme.

The additional £126 million to expand traineeships next year – including for the recently-introduced employer “incentive payment” of £1,000 – will provide enough funding to support tens of thousands of young people during these difficult times.

Going forward, there is a strong case to make these incentive payments a permanent feature of the traineeships programme in future.

‘No justification for extra cash for adults’

On the other hand, employer incentive payments for apprenticeships are nothing new. That is where we get to the not-so-good news from the Budget.

The incentives for hiring apprentices were first introduced in August and offered employers £2,000 to take on apprentices aged 16 to 24 and £1,500 for apprentices aged 25 and over.

From April to September, these incentives will become more generous at a £3,000 per hireregardless of the apprentice’s age.

That is the wrong call.

Incentive payments can help employers build their capacity to support, mentor and supervise younger apprentices.

But there is no such justification for throwing money at employers for recruiting adult apprentices.

Indeed, it contradicts existing government policy that requires employers who do not pay the apprenticeship levy to contribute 5 per cent towards the cost of an adult apprentice’s training and assessment.

It is hard to see how offering £3,000 for recruiting adults will do anything other than undermine the interests of young people who desperately want and need their first step on the career ladder – even more so in these turbulent times.

To make matters worse, the deadweight costs of these adult subsidies are likely to be sky high – wasting tens of millions of pounds.

This precious funding could have been put to much better use by increasing the subsidies for young people to, say, £5,000 or even creating new subsidies for hiring disadvantaged young people such as those with low or no qualifications.

‘Lack of clarity on different schemes’

When sandwiched between traineeships, adult apprenticeships and the new Kickstart scheme, it is not clear how apprenticeships for younger learners are supposed to thrive in 2021.

The Budget offered no clarity on how these schemes are supposed to interact with each other.

Yet the potential consequences for the number of apprenticeship opportunities this year are obvious enough.

The overall focus on jobs and employment in this year’s Budget was entirely necessary. Attempts to generate new education and training opportunities as the economy begins to emerge from the national lockdown should therefore be commended.

Nonetheless, the Chancellor was correct to say that we must harness the talents of young people as we rebuild our economy in the coming months.

It is a great shame that one of his flagship policies might achieve precisely the opposite.

The Budget should have tackled the deep structural problems with apprenticeships

Until Sunak realises there’s a preference in the apprenticeship system for existing employees over young people, his Budget announcements won’t help, writes Andy Norman

Today’s Budget is all about repairing the damage wrought by the coronavirus pandemic, particularly for young people.

The measures announced by the Chancellor attempt to kickstart demand for apprenticeships.

Yet they fail to acknowledge that the pandemic has simply exacerbated the more fundamental problems that have plagued the apprenticeship system for years now.

Until Rishi Sunak undertakes structural reform, his efforts are doomed to fail.

‘Bonus payment too small’

Apprenticeship starts fell by 45 per cent during the first lockdown. They recovered slightly between August and October, but they were still 28 per cent lower than the previous year.

The young have been hardest hit. During the first wave of the pandemic, apprenticeship starts for under 19s fell by 68 per cent, compared to 39 per cent for over 25s.

Low-level apprenticeships have also borne the brunt of the damage, which is particularly concerning because they offer the first step onto the skills ladder. Without them, many low skilled people will be cut adrift.

While level 2 apprenticeship starts plummeted by more than 60 per cent between March and July, starts at level 4 and above fell by just 3 per cent. Meanwhile between August and October, starts at level 4 and above actually grew by about 300.

To try to repair the damage, over the summer the government announced an apprenticeship bonus payment.

Starting from last August, employers have received £2,000 for taking on an apprentice aged 16 to 24 and £1,500 for those over 25.

However, as CPP pointed out at the time, the bonus payment was too small to make a significant impact, amounting to just 13 per cent of the first year of a young apprentice’s wages.

This has since been proven correct. Between August and January, there were just 25,400 starts under the scheme, only a quarter of the 100,000 budgeted for by the Treasury.

‘Apprenticeships going to existing employees’

But there is more going on here than meets the eye.

Looking more closely at the data, employers claimed the bonus payment for only 18 per cent of starts between August and November.

Why would employers not claim incentive payments for more than four-fifths of starts?

The reason seems to be that the bonus cannot be claimed for existing employees. This strongly suggests that currently the vast majority of apprenticeship opportunities are going to people already working at the organisation.

It is unsurprising that the Chancellor has used this Budget to announce an increase in the bonus scheme, with apprentices of all ages now coming with a £3,000 bonus payment from government.

Will this be enough to shift the dial on apprenticeships?

If employers were not willing to take on a young apprentice with a 13 per cent wage subsidy, it seems unlikely that they will now that the subsidy is closer to 20 per cent.

That’s why CPP has argued that the subsidy needs to be 50 per cent of wages.

But increasing the bonus payment can only get us so far.

The preference for existing employees and the exclusion of young people speaks to the more longstanding problems with the apprenticeship system.

Before the pandemic, system reforms – principally the apprenticeship levy – shifted opportunities away from young people looking to take the first step onto the skills ladder and towards highly qualified existing employees.

The pandemic has simply exacerbated this trend.

‘Ringfence levy funds’

So as well as a larger apprenticeship bonus, we need much more fundamental reform of the levy.

Some have argued that reform should give employers more flexibility over how they spend their levy funds, but the opposite is true. Levy rules must reflect that apprenticeships should be a gateway into skilled employment for young people and adults stuck in low-skilled work.

This means ringfencing a proportion of levy funds to be spent only on young people at lower qualification levels.

It also means heavily restricting the share of funds that can be used on existing employees.

The Chancellor was right to recognise that the apprenticeship system is in trouble.

However, the policies Sunak has announced amount to little more than a slightly larger sticking plaster. Actually what the patient really needs is comprehensive surgery.

Watchdog fears public bodies will avoid statistical models following exam grading backlash

Public bodies may be “less willing” to use statistical models to support decisions in future after the system to award exam grades last year failed to “command public confidence”, the statistics watchdog has warned.

A review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, the regulatory arm of the UK Statistics Authority, found the grading system prompted “widespread public dissatisfaction”, and that “limitations” of the statistical models used were not fully communicated.

Although it found qualification regulators and exam boards “worked with integrity” to develop the system used, the watchdog warned that “guidance and support” from government should be improved.

Exams were replaced by a system of centre-assessment grades standardised by computer algorithm last year, but the approach was abandoned after a fierce backlash over the downgrading of results, with students instead issued with the grades provided by their schools and colleges.

This week, in a report on lessons learned from the fiasco, the OSR said it feared public bodies will now be “less willing to use statistical models to support decisions in the future for fear of a public acceptability backlash, potentially hindering innovation and development of statistics and reducing the public good they can deliver”.

The watchdog said this was illustrated by the emphasis placed on an algorithm-free approach in 2021, with education secretary Gavin Williamson promising in January to “put our trust in teachers rather than algorithms”.

Regulators and boards ‘worked with integrity’

In the wake of last year’s fiasco, ministers were widely reported to have attempted to lay the blame with exams regulator Ofqual, and chief regulator Sally Collier resigned shortly afterwards.

The prime minister Boris Johnson also sought to blame the “mutant algorithm” for the problems when he addressed students in the summer.

But the OSR found that teams in regulators and exam boards in all four UK nations “worked with integrity to try to develop the best method in the time available to them”.

“In each country there were aspects of the model development that were done well, and aspects where a different choice may have led to a different outcome.

“However, none of the models were able to command public confidence and there was widespread public dissatisfaction of how the grades had been calculated and the impact on students’ lives.”

The OSR’s main conclusion is that achieving public confidence in statistical models is “not just about the technical design of the model – taking the right decisions and actions with regards transparency, communication and understanding public acceptability throughout the end to end process is just as important”.

It also concluded that guidance and support for public bodies developing models “should be improved”.

Government has a “central role to play in ensuring that models developed by public bodies command public confidence”, the OSR said.

This “includes directing the development of guidance and support, ensuring that the rights of individuals are fully recognised and that accountabilities are clear”.

‘Limitations’ not fully communicated

The OSR said regulators and exam boards faced “numerous challenges” in developing the system last year, which meant it was “always going to be difficult for a statistical algorithm to command public confidence”.

However, the “limitations of statistical models, and uncertainty in the results of them, were not fully communicated”.

“More public discussion of these limitations and the mechanisms being used to overcome them, such as the appeals process, may have helped to support public confidence in the results.”

And while regulators undertook activities to communicate information about the models to those affected by them and published technical documentation on results day, full details around the methodology to be used “were not published in advance”.

“This was due [to] a variety of reasons, including short timescales for model development, a desire not to cause anxiety amongst students and concerns of the impact on the centre assessed grades had the information been released sooner.

“The need to communicate about the model, whilst also developing it, inevitably made transparency difficult.”

‘Limited professional statistical consensus’

Although regulators drew on expertise in the qualifications and education sector, there was “limited professional statistical consensus on the proposed method”.

The methods were “not exposed to the widest possible audience of analytical and subject matter experts, though we acknowledge that time constraints were a limiting factor in this case”.

There was also “limited public discussion ahead of the release of results about the likely historical patterns in the underlying data and how they might impact on the results from the model”.

Regulators carried out equality impact analyses, which were “based on the premise that attainment gaps should not widen, and their analyses showed that gaps did not in fact widen”.

Despite this analytical assurance, there was a “perception when results were released that students in lower socio-economic groups were disadvantaged by the way grades were awarded”.

“In our view, this perception was a key cause of the public dissatisfaction.”

‘Key lessons’ for government

The OSR said there were “key lessons to be learned for government and public bodies looking to develop statistical models to support decisions”.

It said that for statistical models used to support decisions in the public sector to command confidence, the bodies developing them need guidance and support “to be available, accessible and coherent”.

“Our review has found that there is a fast-emerging community that can provide support and guidance in statistical models, algorithms, AI and machine learning.

“However, it is not always clear what is relevant and where public bodies can turn for support – the landscape is confusing, particularly for those new to model development and implementation.”

Ofqual said it welcomed the OSR’s work to “build public confidence in statistical approaches”, and said the report “recognises the challenging task Ofqual – and our counterparts in Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland – faced in awarding grades in the absence of exams last summer”.

“We have learned lessons from last summer. We continue to work with other government departments to make data available for wider scrutiny and we recently set out, jointly with the DfE, our approach to awarding grades in 2021, after our largest-ever public consultation.”

The DfE was approached for comment.