Did Brexit REALLY make a difference to the election outcome?

The effect Brexit had on the results varies wildly from place to place and can’t be distilled into a simple conclusion, says Gemma Gathercole

In the early hours after an election and before the results come in, you hear various commentators coming up with their own ideas about what has happened with the vote. In the aftermath of an election result which has delivered a hung parliament, those debates will certainly continue.

One of the stories of election night will be the massive fall in the UKIP vote share, down 10.8 per cent in the popular vote.

The implications of Brexit and how that affected the election result should not be underestimated, but as with the referendum result itself, it’s difficult to come to a single definitive conclusion.

In polls conducted by YouGov since the referendum there’s been a largely consistent picture of those who think Britain was right or wrong to vote for Brexit. When Article 50 was triggered, 44 per cent thought Britain had been right to vote for Brexit, and 43 per cent thought it was wrong. YouGov pinned these narrowing figures on those who didn’t vote in the referendum being more likely to favour remain. However, in poll figures released on June 7, both were tied at 45 per cent.

The implications of Brexit and how that affected the election result should not be underestimated

So can we assume that voters’ views on Brexit played an important part in their decisions at the general election?

Let’s examine the results in a few seats. Although the referendum results weren’t taken at constituency level, we can work from the closest overlapping areas.

Despite being knocked from its traditional first-seat-to-declare position, the result for Houghton & Sunderland South gives us an insight. Although the seat remained Labour, the vote saw a significant increase (11.3 per cent) in favour of the Conservatives. While not mapped to constituency boundaries, the Sunderland referendum vote was 61.3 per cent in favour of leaving the EU. This suggests that at some level, Brexit may have impacted the overall vote in Sunderland, despite the seat not changing hands.

In Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg lost a seat that has been held by the Liberal Democrats since 1997 to Jared O’Mara from the Labour party. The Lib Dems presented the most pro-EU option in this election. While Sheffield as a city voted narrowly (51 per cent) in favour of leaving the EU, the Labour vote gain in this seat was +2.6 per cent. While still comfortably in third place, the Conservative vote increased by 10.2 per cent. Could this indicate a lack of appetite among Clegg’s constituents to continue fighting the referendum result?

In Cambridge, a seat won by the Liberal Democrats in 2005 and 2010, and a city that voted overwhelmingly in favour of remain, the Liberal Democrat vote share actually decreased. The Conservatives made little headway, with an increased Labour majority being the headline.

There are 650 seats in parliament and we don’t have the space to go through all the results, but here are just a couple more to paint a larger picture.

The Lib Dems retook Bath and North East Somerset from the Conservatives, after Bath recorded almost 60 per cent in favour of remain.

Bristol voted in favour of remain by over 60 per cent. Yet Bristol North West was a Labour gain with an over 16 per cent increase on their vote and a fall in the Conservative share.

So the referendum and party responses had no impact?

It would be difficult to argue that. After all, one of the stories of election night will be the fall of UKIP’s vote share. However, there hasn’t been a universal swing back to another party.

And there’s another referendum that seems to have had a significant impact on the results: the proposed second independence referendum in Scotland. The resurgence of the Conservatives in Scotland and the return of Labour seats, a net loss for the SNP of 21 seats, suggest a rejection of another referendum. Sometimes more voters are like Brenda from Bristol!

With voting patterns varying hugely from place to place, it may be that the only conclusion is that there’s no easy conclusion. There will be many factors that we’ll debate over the next weeks and no doubt Brexit will still be front and centre.

 

By Gemma Gathercole, Head of funding and assessment at Lsect as part of our 2017 election coverage

May’s ‘Strong and stable’ was nothing but a cheap slogan

May’s ‘strong and stable’ leadership was a cheap slogan – and her failures should be a warning to leaders everywhere, says Shane Mann

Theresa May deserves this result. I hope it will be a learning opportunity for the many and not the few: the prime minister has failed as a leader. The mantra of “strong and stable” leadership is nothing more than a cheap slogan. Her premiership will be defined by arrogance and naivety, and as an affront against democracy.

Since the referendum last June I have refrained from throwing my computer at the wall on countless occasions, infuriated by the behaviours of Number 10, such as blocking my journalists from accessing ministers to ask questions to which the sector deserves answers. When Team May entered Downing Street, FE Week and FE Week teams noticed a distinct quietening of communication with the press. Countless media bids to interview ministers and senior civil servants were rejected due to “diary commitments”.

I knew first hand that ministers wished to speak and have an open dialogue, but the powers that be had other ideas.

When the general election was called, it was made clear to my team that all political enquiries were to be directed via Conservative Party HQ. FE Week readers will know from last week’s edition that we attempted on multiple occasions to interview the skills minister Robert Halfon; requests that were continually rejected. In our general election supplement published in May, we depicted a gagged Justine Greening in the space reserved for a Conservative comment piece, when both Labour and the Lib Dems managed to supply a comment regarding their education manifesto pledges.

Her premiership will be defined by arrogance and naivety

None of these problems existed before; sure we had to pester, but we always got a reply. We as the media had fair opportunity to scrutinise and ask questions. This evasion of scrutiny was perpetuated with lack of detail in the manifesto, refusals to speak to journalists, pathetic answers on the campaign trail and sending your number two to the leaders’ television debate.

When the election was called, at first I could appreciate the prime minister’s aim. It was right for her to call an election. The country needed to be heard; we had a new, unelected prime minister and were still are on the brink of an enormously challenging departure from the EU. But what made me uncomfortable was Team May’s belief they could seize an enormous majority, of the like that no party should have.

Ultimately, what this election has shown us how out of touch the prime minister and her team had become from the country.

There is a lesson here for all leaders and aspiring leaders in our sector. I’ve met with May-eque, Corbyn-esque, and even Farron-esque leaders in our sector. Thankfully on the way I’ve also met with lots of inspiring, decent, in-touch leaders – who make you wonder why they aren’t running the country.

This election has cemented my firm belief that to lead you must bring all of your team with you, and be open and transparent, and welcome their questions. Where leaders in our colleges and providers have created gilded offices and long narratives of their own achievements before their institutions’, they have typically fallen on their swords, either through a poor Ofsted, financial chaos or some personal scandal. Take note: simply saying you want something is just the beginning.

Leaders must inspire and embrace all of their staff – even the annoying ones, just as decent constituency MPs do weekly.

Now I am not saying that Corbyn has shown the competence to lead the country. He is still far from perfect, and I am sceptical of the team around him. I had little faith in Corbyn when the election was called and I felt sad for MPs such as Wes Streeting, who was doing incredible work in his constituency, Ilford North, but with polls stacked against him it didn’t look good.

But what Corbyn has shown in abundance is compassion and determination and maintained a fair amount of openness with the press.

The football season is over, but fear not, one of the greatest theatrical sporting occasions is upon us this weekend as we watch the prime minister duel with her own comrades to keep the keys to Number 10.

One thing is certain: the naughtiest thing May has ever done is lie to the country about her ability to provide strong and stable leadership.

By Shane Mann, Managing director of Lsect, publisher of FE Week and FE Week

Election night 2017: The constituencies to watch if you work in FE

It’s been one of the most eventful and uncertain election campaigns in recent history, and now it’s almost over.

The polls will close at 10pm tonight, and this will be closely followed by exit polls before constituency results start to trickle in from around 11.30pm.

In case you were worried we hadn’t done something really nerdy for a while, we’ve produced a handy one-page guide to the politicians to look out for as the results come in.

Potential reshuffles aside, many of the people listed below will to continue to play an important role in the education and skills agenda in the new parliament.

You can download the PDF by clicking on the image below.

Further education and adult learning should be free

Manifesto promise: Scrap fees and loans in further education by doubling the Adult Education Budget

Emily Chapman argues FOR

When I ran to be Vice President for Further Education at the National Union of Students’ National Conference this year, I ran on a manifesto of ensuring funding for Adult Education and ESOL was ring-fenced and that the concept of lifelong learning became central to any government’s FE agenda. Having myself returned to education at the age of 25, I know just how important lifelong learning is, so I’m pleased to see that Labour’s manifesto includes a commitment to scrap fees and loans in further education, by doubling the Adult Education Budget.

Everyone should have the right to access further education, at any stage in their life. For many people, adult education and lifelong learning provides a much-needed second, third or even fourth chance. It supports the most disadvantaged to enter and return to work, gives people agency over their lives and allows them the opportunity to change their career path and learn new skills.  

Time and time again, research has shown the incredible contribution adult education and lifelong learning makes; to the individual, to the economy and to society. Yet these benefits have been consistently overlooked by a government who, until very recently, was committed to pursuing a higher education agenda, rather than a skills-based one.

READ MORE: Education shouldn’t be free for all. Here’s why…

Over the past ten years adult education has been consistently side-lined and its budget subjected to unprecedented cuts. As a result, colleges have been forced to severely narrow the curriculum they provide to adult learners and there are now around 1.5 million fewer adults participating in further education than there were 10 years ago – a fall of 38%.

This dramatic drop in adult learners is unsurprising. Whilst Advanced Learner Loans are ostensibly about supporting adults to gain Level 3 qualifications and above, they are not accompanied by adequate maintenance support. Learners are expected to take on debt to cover both their course and living costs. In an economy where wages are stagnating and the cost of living is rising, it is inevitable that older learners would turn away from adult education, fearful of the debts they would have to take on in order to better their lives.

Labour’s commitment to scrapping advanced learner loans and reintroducing grants has the opportunity to reverse some of the damage done to lifelong learning over the past ten years. Not only will it provide support to older workers and learners from more deprived backgrounds to actually access further education throughout their lives, it also has the potential to completely alter the way lifelong learning is conceived in society.

Everyone should have the right to access further education

Rather than being seen by the majority as just language classes and pottery courses, adequate investment would signal a move towards recognising the incredibly important role adult learning plays in social mobility; in creating communities; in improving the mental and physical wellbeing of its participants and in re-skilling workers throughout their lives.

But whilst this funding and investment would be an important step forward, it’s not enough on its own. There needs to be a cohesive and coherent lifelong learning strategy that recognises the need for quality, impartial careers information, advice and guidance. The Learning and Work Institute’s surveys consistently show that we are more likely to see adults in learning who already have qualifications, than those who don’t, and so adequate IAG will be critical.

The vote to leave the European Union last June has realigned the focus in education policy and I’m pleased that both Labour and the Conservatives have recognised that there needs to be a much greater focus on, and investment in, further education. I’m hopeful that the commitment to adult education will extend beyond June 8.

 

Emily Chapman is Vice president for further education at the National Union of Students

Scrapping the education maintenance allowance was a mistake

Labour manifesto pledge: Reintroduce the 16-19 Education Maintenance Allowance (EMA)

Shakira Martin argues FOR

Scrapping the education maintenance allowance scheme in England was a mistake. Plain and simple. The coalition government did a U-turn on their education policy centred on ‘fairness and equality of opportunity for all’. Against all their rhetoric it took away from those who needed the help most. Labour’s commitment to reinstating the scheme if elected next month are a step in the right direction on the road to recovery for FE.

EMA made a significant difference to those from low-income backgrounds, covering essentials such as food, books and transport. It wasn’t perfect but it eased educational disadvantage and scrapping it has had major repercussions on students from lower-income families. At the time of implementation in 2004, financial constraints were seen as a barrier to involvement in post-16 education, it aimed to directly reduce the cost of education as a means for raising their participation (including influencing retention and attainment).

READ MORE: Why should we give away tax payers’ money so students can buy fast food?

Many students were struggling then, and they’re still struggling now.

We know from our own research that many find it difficult to cover their course costs with half stating that they had considered dropping out due to financial worries. This manifesto finally says to post-16 learners that our politicians are ready to invest in young people again and provide a real ladder to opportunities, skills and jobs.

The introduction of a 16-19 bursary fund to ‘replace’ it didn’t even come close to filling the dark hole that cutting EMA left behind, at just a third of the previous budget dedicated to young learners it barely scratches the surface when tackling the needs of students in hardship. Many are faced with a postcode lottery, depending on the area in which they live means they could be awarded strikingly different amounts. And that’s only if they’ve been told about the fund to begin with, with many being told to only apply for funding ‘if they need it’ – firmly placing the burden on the student.

The introduction of a 16-19 bursary fund didn’t even come close to filling the dark hole that cutting EMA left behind

It’s clear that the overall budget of the post 16 bursary and its discretionary nature are inadequate to meet the needs of FE students. For several years NUS has been calling for a new and improved EMA, which is why we’re particularly pleased to see that Labour has pledged to re-introduce the payments awarded to 16-19 year olds if elected on 8 June.

It isn’t the first time Labour has declared its promise to poorer students, back in October 2016 at Labour Party conference, shadow Education Secretary Angela Rayner spoke about restoring EMA. An unknown on both occasions is exactly how much Labour would commit to the reintroduction of payments, going back to the old scheme would result in means-tested weekly payments of £10 – £30 for those from households earning less that £31,000.

It has been close to 7 years since the government announced it was removing the allowance for those studying in England. Inflation is real. To adequately keep up we’d need to see weekly payments of around £40 and increase the family income threshold and maintain a small discretionary fund for emergencies.

Currently young learners are not receiving the crucial financial backup they need to get to their place of learning and thrive within it. We need to be supporting those who rely on further education institutions, not shutting them out.

 

Shakira Martin is President-elect of the National Union of Students

Desperate college seeks university take-over before merger consultation even begins

A struggling London college is preparing to hand over wide-ranging control of how it is run to a university, through a highly unusual move that does not require government approval.

The planned changes – which are currently under consultation and come months ahead of a planned formal merger – will see Lambeth College’s principal stripped of many of her responsibilities, and at least half of the college’s governors appointed by London South Bank University.

The changes are being proposed to the college’s instruments and articles of governance. The Department for Education confirmed to FE Week that these don’t need to be signed off by government.

According to the consultation page on the college’s website, the principal will have “a smaller list of mandatory duties, so that he or she can focus on the effective management of the college, the learners’ experience and a strong link to the university”.

Monica Box is currently interim principal, and responsibilities that she or a successor will relinquish to LSBU include preparing annual budgets, staffing arrangements, and the “strategic direction of the college”, it said.

The university is also set to take over the balance of power on the college’s board.

“Up to five” governors will be chosen from among LSBU governors and senior staff, plus the university’s vice chancellor “unless he or she chooses not to be a governor”.

The college will be represented by an employee and a learner, along with two or three independents, which are expected to be selected from the college’s current governors.

“All other governors of Lambeth College will resign,” the document explained.

Ms Box told FE Week the proposals “link the college more closely with its chosen strategic partner”.

They also “enable the college to benefit from the support of the senior management structure within the university” and “will strengthen the college’s capacity to improve ahead of the proposed full incorporation into the LSBU family”.

The changes appear to bypass the strict government rules on FE college mergers which stipulate that merger plans must be published – and a notice posted in at least one local newspaper – at least four months before the proposed date of merger.

But Ms Box added that the current consultation, which runs until June 9, “does not stand in place of the formal public consultation” on the college’s merger plans with LSBU – which do need government approval.

She said the new arrangements were due to take effect from mid-June – months ahead of any consultation on the merger expected in the autumn.

The current consultation comes after a report by former FE Commissioner Sir David Collins, published in March, but based on a visit to Lambeth in September, concluded the college was “no longer sustainable” unless it merged.

His visit had been prompted by a “significant deterioration” in the college’s finances, caused by poor financial management.

As previously reported by FE Week, the college was bailed out by Education and Skills Funding Agency last year after its projected deficit for 2015/16 ballooned from £500,000 to more than £5 million.

The merger with LSBU was one of three options proposed for Lambeth, which was rated as ‘requires improvement’ at its most recent Ofsted inspection in December, through the central London area review.

The other two possibilities were a link-up with Lewisham Southwark College, which subsequently joined up with NCG, and a partnership alongside City of Westminster College and the College of North West London.

The merger with the university was chosen as it was thought to offer operational stability, while helping to build clear learning pathways for students, a spokesperson told FE Week in December.

LSBU was unavailable to comment ahead of publication.

It’s too soon to make changes to the levy

Conservative manifesto pledge: Allow employers to use their levy to pay apprentices’ wages

Martin Doel argues AGAINST

The apprenticeship levy is a bold policy that surprised many when it was announced, but it is of a piece with much of the last government’s thinking in terms of what is now being called Red-Toryism; it involves a more interventionist and less purely market-driven approach. In its application of what is effectively a hypothecated tax, it could be a game changer in ensuring employers commit to developing the skills of their workforce to increase productivity, national prosperity and promote individual careers.

To be this game changer, however, levy policy needs to be stable and subject to only incremental, well-considered change, rather than spasmodic development based on self-interested lobbying.

READ MORE: Why the pledge is a GOOD idea

The most oft-stated concern of both employers and further education providers is the frequency of change in our technical and professional education system. It was therefore surprising to see in the Conservative manifesto, under a section headed ‘Career Learning,’ a proposal that companies be able to access the apprenticeship levy to support wage costs during a period of career training (the nature of this training is not specified).  This, when the levy has barely been introduced and its impact has certainly not been assessed, either in output terms, or in terms of the amount of income generated.

A separate, but related, concern is in relation to the potential for ‘gaming’ – a phenomenon that has sadly afflicted a series of skills initiatives, including but not limited to individual learning accounts, train to gain and the early stages of the apprenticeship ‘renaissance’. If the levy is related to a specific and clearly defined apprenticeship product, its application and impact will more easily be ensured and assessed. The wider the product book, the wider the potential for its abuse or misuse; to prevent such abuse or misuse, would be an overweening bureaucracy, again following a pattern that has become wearingly familiar in skills reform. Already we have seen the potential for gaming around the Register of Apprenticeship Training Providers.

If the uses of the levy are to be expanded, it would be best for this to be in relation to training costs in a family of apprenticeship products that can be more easily monitored at the outset.  Work placements and/or traineeships in the college-based route might be candidates for this broadening, providing a useful incentive for employers to become fully involved and committed to the development of young people and prospective apprentice/employees. Tracking and accounting for subsidised wage costs would be much more difficult to achieve, particularly with a new and untested apprenticeship levy IT system.

No one can know how much might be available until the levy has operated for at least a year

A further additional candidate for liberalisation of the levy, which is mentioned in the manifesto, is for large employers to pass on their levy vouchers to smaller employers in the supply chain. Sensibly, at the launch of the levy this has not been allowed, but it has been well signposted as a future development. 

Involving smaller employers in this way also avoids one of the other pitfalls of the proposal to cover wage costs in other training programmes. Namely, losing the prospect of using underspent levy funds to underwrite apprenticeship training costs for smaller employers who do not pay the levy. 

Though there are estimates of how much underspend may be generated, no one can know how much might be available until the levy has operated for at least a year. This uncertainty provides a clue as to why a (small c) conservative line has been taken in the allocation of apprenticeship funding for non-levy payers. Without the apprenticeship levy underspend by large employers, government will need to fund this directly, or accept that apprenticeship growth will slow and be concentrated in large employers.

We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to develop a world class technical and professional education system, with high-quality apprenticeships at its heart. Realising this potential will depend on implementing policy in a considered, evidence-based and focused way, not veering one way and another even before we understand the consequences of policy changes already underway.                    

 

Martin Doel is FETL Professor of Leadership in Further Education and Skills at UCL

‘Patchy’ progress with work training for special needs

A government drive to help young people with learning difficulties and disabilities prepare for the world of work is making “patchy” progress, despite plans to make it universal.

So-called ‘supported internships’ were first introduced through a pilot in autumn 2012 with 15 FE colleges.

They are unpaid study programmes for 16- to 24-year-olds lasting around a year, based primarily at an employer and involving on-the-job training, backed by expert job coaches and complementary college-based learning.

In the July 2016 post-16 skills plan, the government declared that “all young people with education, health and care (EHC) plans should undertake a supported internship” unless they have “good reasons not to”.

But the latest statistics released by the Department for Education show that a total of just 715 young people with statements of special educational needs and EHC plans were on a supported internship in January this year.

Overall, there were 65,742 16- to 25-year-olds with statements of special educational needs and EHC plans in England that month.

FE Week spoke to some of the organisations involved with supported internship courses to hear more about the scheme’s progress.

A spokesperson for Remploy, which provides employment placement services for disabled people, said supported internships are “a vital tool” in helping transition from education into employment.

Uptake remains patchy due to short-term funding and a lack of awareness among some colleges, local authorities and employers

However, uptake “remains patchy due to short-term funding and a lack of awareness among some colleges, local authorities and employers”.

He added: “While over 60 per cent of people with learning disabilities want to work, the learning disability employment rate remains at just six per cent.”

Remploy is in the third year of a partnership with Gloucestershire College and Premier Inn to provide a supported internship programme which has been described as “highly effective” by Ofsted.

The college’s foundation studies school leader Maggie McCarthy said: “Many of these young people have great skills to offer employers, evidenced by the number who have successfully gained permanent jobs as a direct result of their participation in the programme.

“Our learners’ skills and potential may never have been identified without this opportunity.”

The college reported in February that of the 12 young people who took part in the its first supported internship scheme, eight have since secured employment.

The programme was expanded in 2016/17 to include 33 interns across three colleges, who are carrying out internships at 16 employers.
Supported internships are also doing well in west London.

Luke Ward, head of growth employment and skills at the West London Alliance, a partnership between seven west London local authorities, said growth had been “rapid” in comparison with other parts of the UK.

David Hughes, the chief executive of the Association of Colleges, said that although many colleges were working with employers to provide “life-changing” supported internships, for the scheme to be fully effective “colleges and employers need to be supported appropriately”.

Mark Dawe, AELP’s chief executive, said: “Although the volumes have been limited, they have been very effective in transforming the lives of young people.”

Mark Capper, head of employment at learning disability charity Mencap, agreed that there had been “slow growth” with supported internships.

“We know more needs to be done to ensure these opportunities are available,” he said. “Without these, people with a learning disability are being pushed even further from a labour market that already excludes them.”

The Department for Education declined to comment, blaming restrictions on communications ahead of the general election.

Free Financial Times offer is for FE students too

Students from colleges and independent training providers will be able to read the Financial Times for free, despite the offer for 16 to 19-year-olds initially only appearing to be available for secondary schools.

The FT this week advertised a scheme, sponsored by Lloyd’s Bank, for “secondary schools” with sixth-forms to register for free subscriptions starting in September.

Standard FT subscriptions cost £5.35 per week, so access to the paper for free will save each student over £278.20 each year.

But the advert for the scheme, first unveiled yesterday for 16 to 19-year-olds, only invited secondary schools to register.

FE Week checked with the FT if the scheme would extend to FE colleges and ITPs with students in this age range, which a spokesperson confirmed it would.

She added that it would be open to 16 to 19-year-olds on any course, including A-levels, BTecs and apprenticeships.

The spokesperson then told FE Week: “We hope that many FE providers take up this opportunity for the benefit of their 16 to 19 year old students.”

The initiative will not be available to learners aged over 19, but the FT will offer “solutions” to older students seeking access to the website, for example through discounted subscription rates.

Each college, training provider and school which signs up to the scheme will be given its own unique login which can then be shared with each student at the institution.

Learners and their teachers will also receive a weekly bulletin email.

The content will be chosen with a panel of teachers, who will select specific articles, videos and podcasts that they consider to be relevant.

Providers need to register for the scheme at www.ft.com/secondaryschools.

Providers will have access for at least a year, and can then continue at no cost for as long as the programme lasts. The FT said it would notify providers if and when the scheme ends.

Caspar de Bono, the FT’s Business to Business managing director, said: “Universities and employers are looking for candidates that are confident about their subject, and can demonstrate a wider interest than the minimum required by the curriculum.

“A pilot initiative [with secondary schools] has shown that FT journalism can play a valuable part in building this deeper interest. We hope that an enthusiasm for FT journalism will stay with these students in their life.”