The government’s statistics watchdog is to launch a review into how Ofqual’s controversial results algorithm was developed.

The review will look at statistical models used for exam grading to “highlight learning from the challenges faced through these unprecedented circumstances”.

It will not look at the implications of the model on individual results, or take a view on the way to award grades in the absence of exams.

The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), which is the regulatory arm of the UK Statistics Authority watchdog, will lead the review.

Ed Humpherson, director general for regulation at the OSR, said: “Our review will consider the extent to which the organisations developing the models complied with the principles set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics.”

The findings are due to be published in September.

Humpherson, in a letter published today, added: “There are many areas of the approach to awarding exam grades this year that may warrant review and it is likely that other organisations will commission or carry out reviews.

“We are conscious that too many reviews could be unhelpful and will seek to minimise overlap between our review and others. We will try to minimise the burden of our review on organisations involved in awarding exam grades and will contribute our findings to other relevant reviews where appropriate.”

The intervention followed a plea from the Royal Statistical Society for action.

Sharon Witherspoon, RSS’s vice-president for education and statistical literacy, said: “The lack of transparency around the process has not only caused significant distress for thousands of students, it has threatened to undermine public trust in statistics and their use.

“It is therefore right that the Office for Statistics Regulation looks into these issues to ensure this does not happen again.”

The school and college leaders’ union had earlier today called for an independent inquiry into the fiasco, where 40 per cent of A-level grades were marked down. The government made a major U-turn yesterday – allowing pupils to be awarded their centre assessed grades.

Awaiting your BTEC and/or vocational results?

If you are an individual or institution still waiting for your BTEC or any other vocational results, that you expected to receive on Thursday 13 August, contact FE Week. We’re keen to hear from individuals and institutions about you situation and the impact it has had. Email: news@feweek.co.uk

 

The awarding body for BTECs has corrected education secretary Gavin Williamson after he said two per cent of results for the vocational qualification were moderated down. 

Williamson, who is already under fire after U-turning on allowing GCSE, A-level and vocational students to use centre-assessed grades, told BBC Breakfast this morning: “Two per cent of results of BTEC were moderated down from the teacher assessment.” 

Yet Pearson, which has been moderating BTEC results submitted by colleges, has said the two per cent figures refers to results which were moderated upwards or downwards, and only 0.5 per cent were downgraded – meaning three times as many results were upgraded as downgraded. 

“We can confirm we have accepted the overwhelming majority of level 3 submitted grades and that where adjustments were made, this was on the basis of strong statistical evidence both upwards and downwards,” a spokesperson said. 

Exam regulator Ofqual is currently working on allowing BTEC learners to use centre-assessed grades for their final results, after it was announced yesterday A-level and GCSE students could use those instead of their calculated grades.

But there are increasing concerns a small number of learners are yet to receive their results, with Pearson saying the delay has been down to some colleges and schools submitting student information after their deadlines. 

This year, colleges were asked to submit all grades to Pearson for internal assessment, as well as any grades for units which had not been completed, which were accepted “with very little change”.  

These grades formed part of the evidence, along with the previously completed assessments, to award final results to learners after assessments were cancelled due to COVID-19. 

The awarding body said centres’ missing deadlines was “understandable” given the pressures and workload schools and colleges have faced from dealing with the new system for deciding results, and they “understand the frustration this must have caused” learners. 

“We are working closely with the students and colleges involved to look into this urgently,” the spokesperson continued, “and provide any outstanding results as soon as we can”. 

The universities admission service UCAS has indicated that, where applicable, university places for affected learners will be held until the university receives their result. Pearson has said it will contact universities or UCAS for students if necessary. 

Anyone who has been impacted has been asked to send a direct message on Twitter to the @BTECstudents or @Edexcelstudents account. 

The Department for Education was approached for comment.

Awaiting your BTEC and/or vocational results?

If you are an individual or institution still waiting for your BTEC or any other vocational results, that you expected to receive on Thursday 13 August, contact FE Week. We’re keen to hear from individuals and institutions about you situation and the impact it has had. Email: news@feweek.co.uk

A college leaders’ union has amped up the pressure on government, calling for an independent inquiry into this year’s exam results fiasco.

The Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) general secretary Geoff Barton said there was an “urgent” need to “rapidly establish exactly what went wrong with the process for awarding grades to A-level and GCSE students this summer, and to publish its findings and recommendations”.

The union will be writing to education secretary Gavin Williamson after previously calling for a government review into the system used to award A-level, GCSE and vocational qualifications.

After exams were cancelled due to COVID-19, results were decided by teachers assigning grades to their students, known as centre-assessed grades, ranking the students who received each grade, and then submitting those to the exam boards for moderation.

This system led to 40 per cent of A-level grades, released last Thursday, being reduced, depriving students of university places and causing a wave of public anger.

Yesterday, the Department for Education U-turned on its original decision, saying students could use the centre-assessed grades.

The degree of transparency an independent review would provide would be “necessary at a time when public confidence has been badly shaken,” Barton said, referring to the “flawed” statistical model for moderating centre-assessed grades, which he said “produced many anomalous results”.

He said the most important lesson from the review would be: “What lessons can we learn for the future?

“While the government plans for students to sit GCSEs and A-levels next summer, there is currently no Plan B if there is widespread disruption because of coronavirus.

“The government and Ofqual should be putting in place a robust contingency plan, drawing on the lessons from this summer’s debacle.”

The Association of Colleges has also written to Williamson and Ofqual chief regulator calling for an “urgent” review of the system used to decide results this year, saying some colleges with larger numbers of A-level students have been “biased” against by the process. 

Leading labour market economists are being offered £1,000 a day by the Department for Education to join its new skills and productivity board. 

Five vacancies for three-year terms are being advertised for, with an expectation members will commit for 29 days a year, including 12 board meetings. 

The board, the advertisement reads, “will undertake expert analysis of which skills and training add the most value to the economy and give the best earnings for learners,” using both technical analysis of data sources such as earnings, as well as stakeholder interviews, policy reviews, and academic research. The board will also make policy recommendations. 

Their evidence will help the government to identify the training which “best equips young people for work in the future” and will be used by education ministers to inform policy decisions which will “help the system to deliver more of the most valuable skills”.

A Department for Education spokesperson said the board will offer “independent analysis on skills mismatches and identify new and emerging skills needs”.

“In the context of  COVID-19, the board will make a vital contribution to addressing the challenges facing the labour market and providing the skills most needed to promote the economic recovery.”

The panel will be chaired by a business leader appointed by the education secretary who will also set out the board’s direction and work plan. The department said they hoped to announce the chair soon.

Williamson first announced the board in a Guardian article last September, saying: “It’s wrong if we are in a situation where we are selling people courses that aren’t going to lead them into employment. The whole purpose of this is to drive up the level and type of courses that people are taking.” 

“The reason I am setting up a skills and productivity board is to focus on what the economy needs and how I can best spend money to equip people with those skills, so we are providing the employers of Britain with the people they need for the modern economy.” 

The board will also receive information from Skills Advisory Panels, groups of employers, providers and local authorities based in each mayoral authority and local enterprise authority, which were handed £75,000 each earlier this year to produce action plans and reports highlighting how they have supported local providers and employers to address local skills priorities. 

Applicants for the board, the advertisement says, must have evidence of peer-reviewed, published research demonstrating expertise in labour market or skills economics, credibility and status within a peer-reviewed research community, as well as evidence the ability to use quantitative and qualitative research and analysis methods and to both produce complex and technical research findings and communicate them to a non-expert audience. 

They have until 6 September to apply, with interviews expected to take place during the weeks commencing 14 and 28 September. 

The Department for Education has been approached for comment on whether it will advertise for a chair for the board separately, and what their terms and conditions will be. 

UPDATE: Pearson has now said only 0.5 per cent of BTEC results have been downgraded

Two per cent of BTEC results were downgraded from the teacher-assessed grades, the education secretary said this morning. 

Gavin Williamson told the BBC Breakfast programme the BTEC awarding body Pearson are going to be reviewing all of those grades, and the Department for Education was working with the company to ensure no further delay with the release of BTEC results. 

“We will expect there to be a consistency across the board,” the embattled minister said, after he U-turned yesterday on allowing A-level and GCSE to use the grades awarded to them by their colleges if it is higher than the grades calculated for them by exam boards.

A few hours after that announcement was made, Williamson confirmed to journalists the government was looking at how BTEC learners could also use their centre-assessed grades. 

It was revealed last week that 40 per cent of A-level grades were downgraded from their centre-assessed grades, leading to an outcry from students who had lost university places due to their calculated grades and to England following Scotland and Northern Ireland in allowing students to use grades awarded by teachers. 

Asked why there was a delay in allowing BTEC learners to use centre-assessed grades, Williamson said “We are working with Pearson to make sure that there isn’t any further delay,” but there were not the same issues with making the allowance for BTECs as there were with A-levels.

After it was announced BTEC learners could use their centre-assessed grades, Pearson told FE Week BTECs are structured “very differently” to A-levels, comprising modular units and regular assessments. 

This year, colleges were asked to submit all grades to Pearson for internal assessment, as well as any grades for units which had not been completed, which were accepted “with very little change”. 

These grades formed part of the evidence, along with the previously completed assessments, to award final results to learners. 

And for the “very small number of grades” that were adjusted, Pearson said they will be reviewing them “on a case by case basis”. 

The awarding body was approached for a response to Williamson’s comments.

Awaiting your BTEC and/or vocational results?

If you are an individual or institution still waiting for your BTEC or any other vocational results, that you expected to receive on Thursday 13 August, contact FE Week. We’re keen to hear from individuals and institutions about you situation and the impact it has had. Email: news@feweek.co.uk

Education secretary Gavin Williamson has suggested he first got proper sight of Ofqual’s controversial algorithm – and the troublesome results awarded this year – when they were published publicly.

When challenged over claims he only spotted concerns with the system this weekend, Williamson said the department “consistently” asked Ofqual a “large number of challenging questions” as to whether it was fair and robust, adding “we’ve been constantly reassured about that”.

He added: “Over the weekend… Ofqual released some of the algorithm, and actually shared that quite broadly, and obviously we saw a number of outliers, that just didn’t actually make sense.

“Now, as you’ll know … actually we don’t get any of the detailed data before schools. When we started to see some of these quite concerning outliers – this is where we’re sort of asking questions.

“And when the algorithm came out, not just in terms of concerns raised by Ofqual, but also concerns raised by other external experts in terms of how that has had an impact on certain young people’s grades.

“And that’s why I felt that action had to be taken. And that’s why I always say the key thing is always about doing the right thing for students.

“Having raised these concerns, we’ve obviously always been raising concerns, all the way through this but when we felt that we had this extra data we realised that we had to make sure that we act.”

Some will interpret the comments as Williamson attempting to deflect blame to the regulator Ofqual, and question why he did not see crucial details about the results or algorithm before they were published.

Williamson himself was also the person who instructed Ofqual that the grading system should not allow inflation in results.

In an official direction issued to the independent exams regulator earlier this year, Williamson said Ofqual should “ensure, as far as is possible, that qualification standards are maintained and the distribution of grades follows a similar profile to that in previous years”.

When asked if he will resign, Williamson said he is focused on getting young people “the grades they deserve” and “determined” to make sure they’ve fixed this and “that is what we have done”.

The education secretary insisted on both Tuesday and Saturday last week there would be “no U-turn”. When asked if he regretted that, he said: “When we saw quite clearly the evidence that was being presented to us, on behalf, not just Ofqual, but also external experts on this field, it became apparent and clear to me that there were in justices within the system, and I think it is my job to make sure that that’s put right and that’s what I’ve done today.”

He also admitted his “triple lock” appeal promise has been ditched. While there will be an appeals process based on errors in grades, the ability to challenge on a mock grade is no longer.

When asked if Sally Collier, Ofqual chief regulator, should resign, he said she was a “dedicated” public official and the DfE and Ofqual “are focused on key aspects of making sure we get youngsters with grades they deserve”.

Williamson also said he’s working on including BTECs in the grading U-turn.

The Education Secretary Gavin Williamson has said that he is hoping BTEC and similar vocational grades will be included in Ofqual’s new grading policy.

Earlier today exams regulator Ofqual confirmed that both A-level and GCSEs students will now be given their teacher grades in what is a major U-turn for the government. This didn’t include BTEC results.

However, during a briefing with journalists this evening Mr Williamson said that he was working with Pearson, the custodians of BTEC qualifications, to look at what is possible.

The education secretary told reporters: “We’re very much hoping that this will be actually encompassing BTECs. We’re just working with the awarding authorities to make sure that that’s the case, and I think there’s got to be absolute parity and fairness right across the spectrum.”

Williamson said the Department for Education is working with BTEC awarding body Pearson, but said “there’s quite a bit of difference because there’s very little disparity in terms of the assessment of grades for those who took BTECs and other vocational technical qualifications.

“And so there’s been a little bit of disparity but we want to see parity right across the board in terms of how this is approached, and that’s what we’re working with Pearson on in order to ensure that that’s the case.”

Questioned on whether the awarding bodies will have enough time to turn that around with GCSE results due this week, Williamson thanked the awarding bodies for putting in “so much work” and said the DfE will continue to support them with the awarding of grades, and by working with them, they will be able to deliver.

A Pearson spokesperson said BTECs are “structured very differently to A levels, and so the approach to awarding is also different”, and BTECs were not subject to the same statistical moderation process as A levels.

Instead, BTECs comprise modular units assessed at regular stages during their course of study, so students had already banked graded units for their qualification before March.

“As we do every year, this year we asked centres to submit all the grades for the internal assessment units that had been completed as well as any grades for units still to be completed. These were accepted with very little change following quality assurance checks. They then formed part of the evidence, alongside previously completed assessment unit grades, to award grades for the externally assessed units and the final overall qualification grade. 

Ofqual has said this evening the framework used to decide the results of vocational and technical qualifications (VTQs) like BTECs this summer was different to that used for A-levels.

But: “For the small number of qualifications that have used a statistical standardisation approach similar to the Ofqual model for A-levels and GCSEs, we have asked awarding organisations to review their approach.

“This is likely to mean a small proportion of VTQ results will be reissued.”

Pearson has been approached for comment.

Awaiting your BTEC and/or vocational results?

If you are an individual or institution still waiting for your BTEC or any other vocational results, that you expected to receive on Thursday 13 August, contact FE Week. We’re keen to hear from individuals and institutions about your situation and the impact it has had. Email: news@feweek.co.uk

The mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, has this evening reiterated his threat of legal action against the government, on behalf of students affected by the A-level, GCSE and Vocational qualifications fiasco.

Exams regulator Ofqual confirmed this afternoon that both A-level and GCSEs students will be given their teacher grades in what is a major U-turn for the government. However, this doesn’t include BTEC and other vocational qualifications results.

Speaking on BBC News, Mr Burnham said: “I am not going to let go of my threat of legal action until I hear from ministers that BTEC students have also been protected by this U-turn.”

Earlier today Mr Andy Burnham, said he would be taking legal advice today and had already spoken with lawyers, after he accused the government of “digging in” and “standing by their flawed system”.

Jolyon Maugham, director of the Good Law Project, announced last week that his organisation was mounting a legal challenge similar to others announced. This afternoon Mr Maugham confirmed that his firm were also investigating issues with BTEC grades.

Mr Maugham, via Twitter, said: “We believe there may be continuing issues for BTEC Students who we understand not to be covered by today’s announcement. We will be examining the situation carefully in the coming days and may well bring further litigation to ensure fairness for all students.”

Ofqual’s announcement today, follows mounting pressure on the government over last week’s calculated grades that were mostly awarded based on Ofqual’s algorithm. Nearly 40 per cent of final grades were downgraded from centre assessment grades (CAGs).

The announcement today means pupils will receive either their CAG or calculated grade – whichever is higher. It applies to A and AS levels, as well as GCSEs.

Exams regulator Ofqual has confirmed that both A-level and GCSEs students will be given their teacher grades in what is a major U-turn for the government.

The announcement, trailed by national newspaper journalists on Twitter earlier today, follows mounting pressure on the government over last week’s calculated grades that were mostly awarded based on Ofqual’s algorithm. Nearly 40 per cent of final grades were downgraded from centre assessment grades (CAGs).

The announcement today means pupils will receive either their CAG or calculated grade – whichever is higher. It applies to A and AS levels, as well as GCSEs.

Ofqual has not announced any changes to BTEC and other vocational qualifications results.

Education Secretary Gavin Williamson said this had been an “extraordinarily difficult year for young people who were unable to take their exams.

“We worked with Ofqual to construct the fairest possible model, but it is clear that the process of allocating grades has resulted in more significant inconsistencies than can be resolved through an appeals process.

“We now believe it is better to offer young people and parents certainty by moving to teacher assessed grades for both A and AS level and GCSE results.”

He added: “I am sorry for the distress this has caused young people and their parents but hope this announcement will now provide the certainty and reassurance they deserve.”

Ofqual has also said it is “extremely sorry” for the “real anguish” its grading system caused.

Chair Roger Taylor added: “We want to take steps to remove as much stress and uncertainty for young people as possible – and to free up heads and teachers to work towards the important task of getting all schools open in two weeks.

“After reflection, we have decided that the best way to do this is to award grades on the basis of what teachers submitted.”

Scotland has already U-turned to allow teacher grades, and this morning Northern Ireland and Wales announced similar moves.

Williamson had insisted on Saturday that there would be “no U-turn”. But the decision was made to allow centre-assessed grades after Ofqual chaotically pulled its guidance on appeals – leaving students who missed out on the grades needed to progress onto their next destination in further limbo.
It was reported the guidance was removed as Ofqual board members were split over instead just allowing centre assessment grades to be awarded.

But it appears Williamson will survive the controversy. A spokesperson for prime minister said Boris Johnson had “full confidence” in the embattled education secretary.

The Association of Colleges’ chief executive David Hughes said his organisation supports the move, “because decisive and urgent action was needed, in the interests of thousands of students who found themselves at the bluntest end of the system.

“Moving to CAGs is a boost for those students and will allow them to progress in learning and into work. It will be a relief after days of anguish. At the same time, for students anticipating their GCSE results this Thursday it removes much of the anxiety and provides certainty.”

“It is vital that information is provided speedily on how this decision will impact on higher education institutions, students wishing to apply through clearing and those who may have been rejected on their original grades. 

“Colleges are looking forward to welcoming new and progressing students over the next few weeks and will continue to work with 16-year-olds to ensure all young people have a suitable place and that the transition to their next step is smooth and stress-free after a tough six months.”

Bill Watkin, Chief Executive of the Sixth Form Colleges Association, said: “Today’s announcement has brought some much needed good news to the thousands of students let down by the significant failings in the government’s model for calculating A level grades. Leaders and teachers, students and parents, have worked tirelessly to raise awareness of the injustices caused by the model, and today’s announcement is in large part down to their hard work.

“When it became clear that the government’s model was incapable of generating accurate A level grades, honouring students’ centre-assessed grades was the best way to end the uncertainty and anxiety experienced by many students since Thursday morning. There is no perfect solution, and using centre assessed grades will generate some problems of its own, but the situation we find ourselves this evening is infinitely better than the situation at the start of today.

“Tomorrow, the hard work begins in making up the ground lost since Thursday. But tonight we are thankful that many thousands of students now have a far greater range of options available to them and can start to move on from what has been a very difficult period”.