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18 June 2026

Skills England has exposed a social care timebomb

An ageing workforce and falling level 2 and 3 achievements are weakening the foundations of adult social care just as demand accelerates
Iain Salisbury Guest Contributor

CEO, Aspiration Training

4 min read
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Skills England has just published its Sector Skills Needs Assessment for health and adult social care. The headline figures are stark. Adult social care alone faces demand for 685,000 workers over the next decade, 281,000 from sector growth and a further 404,000 to replace those who will retire or leave.

Behind those numbers is a workforce picture that makes the challenge harder still. Adult social care employs proportionally fewer workers aged 16 to 25 than the England average and significantly more aged 55 and over. This demographic imbalance points to an untapped opportunity. With over one million young people currently not in education, employment or training, adult social care represents one of the most viable and socially valuable pathways available. Adult social care, with its accessible entry requirements, earn-while-you-learn apprenticeship model, and clear progression ladder, is one of the few sectors genuinely positioned to absorb that talent at scale. Connecting those two realities is not just good workforce planning. It is good social policy.

The retirement wave is not approaching; it has already begun. And a 24 per cent fall in FE achievements at level 2 and 3 in health and social care means the very foundation of the pipeline is moving in the wrong direction at the worst possible time.

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