Multiply programme showed us what works in adult numeracy

When adults learn, our society and economy thrive is the strapline for Learning and Work Institute’s Get the Nation Learning campaign. It came to mind while reading the recently published findings of the Multiply programme evaluation.

Rishi Sunak’s £270 million ‘Multiply’ adult numeracy programme, funded courses across England between 2022 and 2025.

The evaluation was unable to show whether the programme improved adults’ numeracy skills, which has generated some debate in the sector. But it did reveal much about how to engage adults in learning.

In some ways, that’s the point: it’s only when adults do actually decide to engage in learning that people, businesses and society benefit from improved skills. You can’t improve people’s skills without engaging them in learning in the first place. So, to borrow a favourite evaluator’s phrase – and without apology for the pun – what should be our ‘key takeaways’ from the Multiply programme?

Clearly, there are important lessons for government around the commissioning of future programmes like Multiply. In an ideal world, much more lead-in time would be allocated for a clear purpose and vision for the programme to be developed from the start. And with sector input on whether the programme’s activities are intended primarily to engage people in learning or deliver outputs such as qualifications. It would have helped ensure that all the funding available in year one could have been used.

That skills gains couldn’t be systematically measured across the programme doesn’t mean that no one improved their skills. There are plenty of examples from across the programme of people developing practical, everyday numeracy skills and confidence in topics like managing money. But early engagement and collaboration with expert evaluators prior to commissioning could have helped develop more appropriate approaches to measuring and capturing improvements in skills, even in the context of short, non-formal, non-accredited learning interventions.

Gains in skills are important, but once the remit of Multiply changed to focus primarily on engagement in learning, the issue of skills measurement becomes less of a priority. And just engaging people in numeracy learning matters. The OECD’s 2023 Adult Skills survey shows that in England, 8.5 million adults have low skills in numeracy and/or literacy.

Adult participation in numeracy learning has declined by around 60 per cent over the past decade, with only around 230,000 people participating in adult maths courses each year. At L&W we believe on current trends, it would take around 25 years to make sure that everyone has the essential literacy and numeracy skills needed for life and work. Of course, we can’t achieve that goal without first getting more people into learning.

The Multiply evaluation findings should be read in this light. The programme made a notable contribution to adult numeracy learning participation, with over 200,000 learners taking part, increasing total numeracy enrolments by 63 per cent compared to the three years before Multiply. Crucially, the evaluators found that 85 per cent of those enrolments would not have happened without the programme.

There were high levels of participation among groups considered to be under-represented in adult numeracy education, including learners with English as an additional language, learners from ethnic minority backgrounds, and people with long-term health conditions. Rates of retention, completion and progression were high, with a third going on to take another numeracy course and a quarter taking a non-numeracy course. Of the learners who went on to further study, 55 per cent subsequently started a qualification bearing course, representing 32 per cent of all Multiply learners. Those skills gains – and the benefits – didn’t show in the Multiply evaluation.

The programme also successfully stimulated innovation in adult numeracy provision. New ways of teaching numeracy – or perhaps more accurately, for too long overlooked ways of teaching numeracy – were developed, including embedding maths in family learning, ESOL and vocational programmes. Delivery partnerships with community and voluntary sector organisations have suffered in recent years, due to funding cuts and the resulting loss of sector capacity. Through Multiply, partnerships were re-kindled and strengthened, and emerged as an effective feature of the programme, although employer engagement remained a challenge. These positive features of Multiply are consistent with the wider evidence on ‘what works’ in getting people into adult numeracy learning.

It’s encouraging that a large majority of Multiply providers report planning to embed elements of their programme into their future adult learning programmes, and just under half plan to continue building and deepening relationships with community organisations to help recruit and engage learners.

Taking forward the learning from Multiply doesn’t just rest on providers, though. It also requires commissioners, including the Department for Work and Pensions and mayoral strategic authorities, to re-evaluate and re-think the priority they afford to opportunities for flexible, non-accredited adult learning.

Within the adult skills fund, that means valuing the tailored learning element, and other flexibilities, to realise the benefits of non-formal learning in supporting the engagement and progression of those furthest away from participation in learning and other skills initiatives. Because if too few adults learn, we risk our society and economy languishing.