Sponsored academy students make ‘less ambitious’ post-16 choices

Students at sponsored academies are likely to make “less ambitious” post-16 choices, while the opposite is true for selective schools and free schools, a new report has shown.

Female students are also more likely to enrol in post-16 courses that are less challenging than their results would indicate.

The Nuffield College-funded report found “clear and systemic patterns”, with school type, gender and background being major factors in whether students enrolled in post-16 destinations that ‘matched’ their ability, based on their previous performance.

It was conducted by Education Policy Institute (EPI) and the UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, using national administrative data tracking students from secondary school through to higher education.

While the report recognises that some “mismatch” between outcomes and prior attainment is normal and desirable, systemic differences in mismatch based on students’ backgrounds suggests that some groups face structural barriers.

Sam Tuckett, associate director for post-16 and skills at EPI, said the differences in outcomes “are not explained by prior attainment”, but “reflect the environments students learn in, the peers and classmates who shape their sense of what’s normal, the guidance they receive, and what they are encouraged to pursue”.

He added: “When capable students, whatever their gender, postcode, or school type, consistently end up in courses that don’t match what they’re capable of, the consequences follow them into their careers and earnings for years afterwards. Address that, and we unlock potential the system is currently failing to reach.”

Dr Emily Tanner, education programme head at the Nuffield Foundation added it was “deeply concerning that young people are still being held back by gender, ethnicity, where they live and the type of school they attend”.

Here are the key findings of the report…

1. Free schools or selective schools more likely to ‘overmatch’

Researchers created two definitions. “Overmatching” describes when a student enrols in a course “more demanding” than previous results would typically predict, while “undermatching” is when a student enrols in a course “less demanding” than previous results would indicate.

It looked at cohorts finishing 16-19 study between the 2018-19 and 2021-22 academic years.

Students from sponsored academies were found more likely to “undermatch”, regardless of what those results were.

Contrastingly, students at free schools, selective schools or UTC were more likely to “overmatch”.

But those attending converter academies and local authority-maintained schools “generally fall between these extremes”.

2. Girls less likely to make ambitious choices post-16

High-attaining male students were found to be more likely than their female counterparts to enrol on more ambitious courses than their results would indicate.

The report states several factors that could contribute to this, including that male students may be more confident in their academic ability, or that high-attaining male students are more likely to choose subjects that have higher entry requirements like maths and science subjects.

Following GCSE exam cycles in 2020 and 2021, more male students enrolled in A Levels while female students were slightly more likely to move to vocational level 3 routes.

3. Students in London more likely to ‘overmatch’

London-based students were more likely to enrol on more ambitious courses, with the city also seeing the biggest rise in students studying level 3 qualifications during the pandemic years.

Outside London, the north east saw the greatest increase in students studying level 3 qualifications compared to pre-pandemic figures.

The report found that having sufficient post-16 provision was necessary for well-matched choices, but that there was no direct evidence that having more post-16 options available led to “more stretching choices”.

4. Impact of teacher-assessed grades on outcomes

The report notes that after the 2020 and 2021 cohorts received centre and teacher assessed grades, when exams were cancelled due to the pandemic, many students received better results than expected and therefore had more options open to them post-16.

The proportion of students that went on to study level 3 post-16 qualifications increased by four percentage points in 2020, while those who did apprenticeships or studied level 2 or below qualifications fell by 1.4 and 2.5 percentage points respectively.

However, the completion rates for the year groups awarded teacher/centre assessed grades was lower.

While significant pre-pandemic inequalities in higher education remained the same, grade inflation caused by exam cancellations in 2020 and 2021 led to a widening of the gap between private and state schools, and a narrowing of the gender gap.

Gill Wyness, deputy director of the UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, said the “widening of inequalities in the university courses attended following exam cancellations reinforces the message that external exams are the fairest and most equitable way to assess students.”

5. Calls for ‘range of demanding pathways’

The report makes a number of policy recommendations for the government, including guaranteeing “a genuine range of demanding pathways within range of all students”.

It also called for them to introduce “a dedicated 16-19 student premium to fund academic, pastoral, and transition support for those most at risk of dropping out”.