Two recent reports have helped us understand the types of skills we could be lacking in the future, and how we might obtain them.
Tuesday saw the launch of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) second Adult Skills Survey which is part of the Programme of International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIACC).
It was accompanied by a more detailed report, compiled by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), analysing the skills levels of adults in England. On first reading, the findings appear wholly positive.
Overall, adults in England scored above the international average across numeracy, literacy and problem solving, with a significant increase in numeracy scores since the first survey in 2012.
In literacy and problem-solving, England is second only to Japan among the G7 countries, and was outperformed only by Japan and Germany in numeracy. There has also been a significant improvement in literacy and numeracy skills of young adults since 2012.
But the devil is in the detail and the situation slightly more nuanced. While the improvement in average adult numeracy skills is very welcome, it has been driven by an increase in average skills levels among higher achievers, meaning the gap between highest- and lowest-scoring adults is widening.
The report estimates widening skills inequalities meant 8.5 million working-age adults in England had a low proficiency (achieving a score of below 225 out of 500) in literacy, numeracy or both, when the survey was conducted last year.
Eighteen per cent of adults in England were defined as having low proficiency in literacy and 21 per cent in numeracy – a substantial proportion of the population.
These adults are almost certainly more likely to work in ‘high-risk’ jobs such administrative, secretarial, sales, cleaning, hospitality and warehouse roles, which are projected to decline in the coming decade.
So what can be done to support these people and ensure they do not struggle to adapt to a changing labour market, or drop out of it entirely? That’s where our second report comes in.
We could soon see unprecedented levels of skills shortages
Just last week we published a recommendations report as part of The Skills Imperative 2035, a five-year research programme funded by the Nuffield Foundation.
Based on perspectives and ideas shared by a panel of experts, the report makes a set of recommendations designed to help workers in high-risk roles successfully transition into occupations expected to grow by 2035.
Among other things, the report calls on the government to increase real-terms public investment in adult education and skills, close to early 2010s levels, as well as strengthening the right to request time off so that people can remain employed while retraining during an unpaid career break.
NFER also recommends that education and qualification providers should create training courses and qualifications that are tailored to meet the needs of working adults and enable them, where necessary, to learn while working.
Previous reports in the Skills Imperative 2035 have quantified the gravity of the situation, focusing on the essential employment skills (EES) the country will need in the coming decade: communication, collaboration, problem-solving, organising, planning and prioritising work, creative thinking and information literacy.
Our projections show we could soon see unprecedented levels of skills shortages, with seven million workers lacking the EES they need to do their jobs in the next decade.
We suggest around 12 million people in England work in occupations that are expected to decline by 2035. By the end of the next decade, there could be over a million fewer jobs in these occupations.
Allowing skills gaps to widen could stifle the country’s productivity and act as a drag on economic growth, while limiting individuals’ employment and earnings opportunities.
It’s vital that we do all we can to help workers upskill or reskill so they are able to switch to more promising growing careers, such as teaching or healthcare, or simply earn more money in their current line of work.
A shortage of EES, coupled with 8.5 million people who are ‘low proficient’ in literacy, numeracy or both means we have a long way to go. Securing the essential skills required for tomorrow’s workforce is a big task, which needs tackling at once.
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