Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of shirking accountability after Downing Street admitted his “bold new target” for two-thirds of young people to enter higher-level learning has no deadline.
The prime minister this week used his party conference speech to “scrap” Tony Blair’s target of getting 50 per cent of young adults into higher education, declaring this goal was “not right for our time”.
Starmer announced a new aim that includes apprenticeships after stating further education would be a “defining mission of this Labour government”.
Downing Street later confirmed the PM’s aim was for two-thirds of young people to be “participating in higher-level learning – academic, technical or apprenticeships – by age 25, up from 50 per cent today”.
It added a “sub-target” will ensure “at least 10 per cent of young people pursue higher technical education or apprenticeships by age 25 by 2040, a near doubling of today’s figure”.
But FE Week has now been told the 2040 sub-target date does not apply to the main two-thirds goal.
It was reported that Blair’s target, announced in 1999, had a deadline of 2010, and it was reportedly achieved in 2019.
Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute, said not setting a deadline for Starmer’s target meant it was “not a target”.
“If there’s no date for people to work towards, then it’s just a vague aspiration,” he said. “That seems rather unwise, given that one common criticism of this government is that it has a tendency to make commitments but not see them through.
“For the prime minister to make a speech with a big new commitment in it and for that to fall apart the moment he gets back to London reminds me of an episode of Yes, Prime Minister.”
How far are we from the ‘target’?
Government data for participation in HE by age 25 is only available up to 2022-23, which relates to people who were 15 years old in 2012-13.
It shows 49 per cent of the 573,000-strong 2012-13 cohort entered some form of higher education, which covers all level 4+ qualifications including academic degrees and work-based learning such as apprenticeships.
This was an increase of 10.2 percentage points on the 2001-02 cohort.
Around 5 per cent of the 2012-13 cohort of 15-year-olds took a higher technical qualification or apprenticeship.
If Starmer’s sub target – 10 per cent of young adults pursuing higher technical education or apprenticeships – is met, this suggests the government is aiming to increase current academic higher education participation by around 13 percentage points to 57 per cent.
Tom Richmond, an education policy analyst and former adviser to DfE ministers, said Starmer’s target seemed “ambitious” but it was “frustrating” that it focused on participation instead of completions.
He said: “Given that there has only been a 10-percentage point increase in level 4+ participation over the past decade – almost all of which was driven by more students starting undergraduate degrees – an additional 17 percentage point increase from this point forward looks hugely ambitious.
“That the target only focuses on participation, not completions, is also frustrating as the apprenticeship dropout rate remains stubbornly high.”
Hillman added he would “caution against” having 2040 as any sort of target date for Starmer’s technical education and apprenticeships sub-target.
“There will be three general elections – at least – between now and then, so it would be a date guaranteed to mean no accountability. There are good reasons why educational institutions tend to plan on a five-to-seven-year time horizon,” he said.
It will be today’s 10-year-olds, currently in either year 5 or 6 in primary school, who will be aged 25 in 2040 and judged for whether the sub-target was reached.
We’ve been here before
Multiple ministers have distanced their governments from Blair’s 50 per cent target since 2010.
WonkHE pointed out that the coalition government’s business secretary Vince Cable told the House of Commons in 2010: “We must not perpetuate the idea, encouraged by the pursuit of a misguided 50 per cent participation target, that the only valued option for an 18-year-old is a three-year academic course at university. Vocational training, including apprenticeships, can be just as valuable as a degree, if not more so.”
PM David Cameron said in 2012: “By making apprenticeships a gold standard option for ambitious young people, we are sending a message that technical excellence is as highly valued as academic prowess.”
And education secretary Gavin Williamson said in 2020: “When Tony Blair uttered that 50 per cent target for university attendance, he cast aside the other 50 per cent. It was a target for the sake of a target, not with a purpose.
“As education secretary, I will stand for the forgotten 50 per cent. From now on, our mantra must be further education, further education, further education.”
‘A welcome reset’
Ben Rowland, CEO of the Association of Employment and Learning Providers, said Starmer’s announcement was a “welcome and major reset of what aspiration should mean for young people”.
He added: “It could be transformative, for young people, for their families, for teachers and for employers. But delivering it will require a step change every bit as significant in how the skills system engages employers: we need those employers already involved to ramp up what they do, and many of those employers who are not yet involved to get involved for the first time. Otherwise it is just empty words.”
Mary Curnock Cook, education expert and former CEO of UCAS, said that together with maintenance grants, the lifelong learning entitlement and the “shift” to higher education including apprenticeships rather than just “university”, Starmer’s target signalled a fuller embrace of the recommendations of the Augar Review from 2019.
“If there is a settlement for universities in the forthcoming skills white paper, it will surely come with some level 4 and 5 strings attached,” she added.
“Perhaps we’ll finally see the foundations of a properly integrated tertiary education system where people can access a frictionless journey using multiple providers, levels, and credit, learning in the flow of life and work.”
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