They say it’s good to talk, and that’s certainly the case when identifying the challenges facing FE leaders.
Here at Think we are privileged to sit down and hear the concerns of many college principals regarding post-16 provision sufficiency, which has risen up the agenda in recent years.
Indeed, since last summer it’s often been the first topic principals discuss, with accounts of colleges closing applications for courses early and stories about hundreds of applicants being turned away.
Manchester was possibly the first area to sound the post-16 education alarm bell with the Department for Education in 2022. As the city’s renaissance continues apace it has seen its 16-18 population rise by a third in the last two decades.
We’ve undertaken post-16 sufficiency reviews for councils in large cities (including Manchester) and rural areas and continue to work with colleges, providers and local authorities on this issue. As FE Week recently highlighted, a shortage of FE places in Leeds has raised fears over the poorest young people being left behind.
Under the 1996 Education Act, local authorities have a statutory duty to ensure sufficient provision is available to meet the needs of young people over compulsory school age but under 19, and over 19 if they have an Education, Health and Care plan.
Now, published data – despite time lags in reporting – is telling a clearer story on sufficiency.
ONS population projections
Nationally, the 16 to 17-year-old population is projected to have risen by 18.4 per cent from 2018 to 2025, but the increase from now until the peak in 2029-30 is 2.7 per cent.
Population change varies considerably by district, with the highest growth expected in the South East of England – the ONS projects a 40 per cent rise in Dartford since 2018. Meanwhile, Barrow-in Furness, in Cumbria, is only forecast a 2 per cent rise.
However, we know of colleges facing unprecedented demand for places in areas that the ONS claims are seeing comparatively modest growth in population.
Key stage 4 destinations data
In many areas, colleges are increasing their share of the post-16 market. Official data suggests an inconsistent trend over the past five years.
But the most recent data between 2021-22 and 2022-23 suggests FE colleges have increased their share of post-16 students in roughly two-thirds of top tier English local authorities by an average of 1.75 per cent. In some areas, this figure showed a 6 per cent increase in a single year, on top of rapid population growth. For some providers this adds up to a substantial number.
Higher floorspace needs
It’s an obvious point, but some subject areas demand more accommodation per learner than others. Colleges report a trend among learners towards more technical subject areas, which puts pressure on available learning spaces.
A review of DfE start numbers shows that nationally, enrolments by under-19s in awards certificates and diplomas in construction and crafts/creative arts and design are growing faster than the average.
September guarantee
National data shows little overall change in the proportion of young people receiving suitable offers of education and training by the end of September, which hovers around 95 per cent. But this hides significant variations by local authority district – for example, contrast data for Dudley (77 per cent receiving a suitable offer) with Thurrock (99.98 per cent).
NEETS
Around one in eight 16 to 24-year-olds are not in education, employment or training (NEET) – rightly the source of much attention, including through the 18-21 Youth Guarantee. Without concerted action to address sufficiency issues there’s a growing risk providers will be unable to respond to rising post-16 demand, negatively impacting participation in education, training and entry to jobs and careers.
Our analysis of findings from a surface-level data review highlights the limits of a standardised approach that fails to take account of the local picture. But we only consider some drivers of demand for post-16 places – not the capacity of providers to respond to this demand. Clearly the latter will vary considerably by institution.
That’s why it’s so important for local authorities and providers to work together to grasp issues and develop responses. Understanding data is critical to supporting this work.
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