Teachers estimating grades ‘could sound the death knell for public confidence in Ofqual’

Education secretary Gavin Williamson had the choice to empower Ofqual to come up with the right solutions for grading vocational qualifications this summer that would not disadvantage learners. Instead, he has taken the path of political imposition and Whitehall knows best, writes Tom Bewick

 

The Secretary of State for education, Gavin Williamson, has done something no other minister elsewhere in the United Kingdom has felt the need to do during the coronavirus crisis: in England he has brought the whole regulation of qualifications under direct political control. At least for the foreseeable future.

The evidence for this is contained within two ministerial direction letters he has recently sent to the regulator, Ofqual. Directions are quite rare in Whitehall circles, because they are essentially written orders to top mandarins, by their political masters, to pursue a particular course of action. One reason they are hardly ever used is because they indicate an underlying disagreement between ministers and their senior officials about what is in the public interest. We saw this in May 2018, when the then perm sec, Jonathan Slater, requested a direction from the then secretary of state, Damian Hinds, about the implementation of T-levels.

He has taken the path of political imposition, Whitehall knows best

Slater highlighted serious concerns about the September 2020 delivery for the new technical qualifications and questioned value for money issues on grounds of ‘regularity, propriety and feasibility.’ His recommendation was to commence T-level delivery in September 2021, which was subsequently overruled by Hinds in a written direction. Crucially, despite the major impact of the pandemic on colleges this September, current ministers have displayed the same uncompromising zeal when it comes to T-levels.

Last week, Williamson despatched the second of his two letters to the chief regulator for qualifications in England, Sally Collier. Following the cancellation of summer examinations, ministers moved swiftly to order the first direction. A handful of academic boards and the regulator will have to come up with a model of teacher-led predicted grades. This should enable the cohort of learners that were due to take GSCEs and A-Levels this summer with the means to progress onto further studies or apprenticeships.

The thing about general qualifications is that they are mainly taken by young people. They are homogenous, in the jargon. Centres are well established schools and colleges. Between them, teachers in these centres, are sitting on a gold mine of information about the prior attainment of candidates, often based on 10,000 hours of formal schooling. Take your typical A-Level candidate for example: a teacher will have access to their GCSE results; written coursework assignments, extra-curricular activities; formative assessments and because of the teacher contact time, a high degree of knowledge about a student’s commitment to the subject and overall work-ethic. Many educationalists, including training providers, argue that tutors are best placed to accurately predict the grades or results of their students. And during these exceptional circumstances of the pandemic, ministers are inclined to agree.

The problem with this kind of ‘blind faith’ is that it does not stand up to any kind of empirical scrutiny. Tutor-led grade predication is more of an art than science. Major studies by Tim Gill of Cambridge Assessment, for example, found that while some reasonable methods are available to tutors, the prediction rates are poor i.e. less than half of the predictions will usually be accurate. In 2017, UCAS published data which showed only 42 per cent of applicants to university were predicted the right grades. Behavioural psychologists have found that teachers employ positive bias when assessing their students. A study by Dr Gill Wyness of UCL (2016), looking into the accuracy of predicted grades for direct entry to university, found that 75 per cent of applicants had their grades over-predicted; and only 16 per cent were accurately predicted. In other words, without the objectivity and integrity of external independent assessment, including robust regulation of these qualifications, grade inflation would be rife.

The thing that worries many experts in the sector is that if tutor-led predictions are this dodgy for qualifications like A-levels, which have a pedigree dating back to 1951, how on earth are predicted grading models for the complex arena of mainly competency based vocational qualifications going to be anymore valid, reliable or safe?

It is the single most powerful argument for why, if ministers get their way on introducing a new extraordinary regulatory framework for academic and vocational technical qualifications in England, it could sound the death knell for public confidence in the actions of so-called independent regulators like Ofqual in future. After all, take the unfolding crisis of Covid-19. Here, politicians are at pains to stress how much they are following the lead of scientific advisers in tackling the disease. The health secretary, Matt Hancock, regularly appears in public alongside the chief medical officer (CMO), Professor Chris Witty. Together, they are shaping the government’s response to the crisis. Despite the unprecedented times we now live in, Hancock has not felt the need to order in writing the specific methods the CMO must pursue in tackling coronavirus. He has done the opposite, trusting his most senior public health officials to guide the government in its actions.

There is potentially one more sting in the tail of Williamson’s overt political take-over of Ofqual. The powers he has taken are granted under a 2009 Act of Parliament which gives the secretary of state the ability to ensure Ofqual is always aligned with government policy, ‘as he may direct.’ There is nothing to stop an extraordinary qualifications regulatory framework becoming the permanent one.

It means that, unlike the other emergency powers the government has taken, there is no time limits or indeed any other kind of limits being placed on the secretary of state in regard to regulated qualifications. Whatever the department’s real intensions of all this, there is perhaps one silver lining. If the tutor-led predicted results model for all types of regulated qualifications taken between now and the end of July does end up a complete Horlicks, at least Parliament will have no one else to blame but the secretary of state himself. Williamson had the choice to empower the regulator to come up with the right solutions that would not disadvantage learners. Instead, he has taken the path of political imposition, Whitehall knows best, rather than pursuing the higher cause of shoring up public confidence in the extrinsic value of independent qualifications regulation.

Vast majority of apprentices still receiving training, according to AELP survey

More than eight in 10 apprentices are continuing to receive training during the Covid-19 lockdown, the Association of Employment and Learning Providers has found.

A survey of 150 providers, who train 81,000 apprentices between them, revealed that the vast majority have successful executed an almost overnight switch to online learning.

Forty three per cent said they are managing to train learners at between 80 and 100 per cent of their pre-pandemic capacity, but 57 per cent of them are training at less than 80 per cent of capacity.

A quarter of the providers, who responded on an anonymous basis, did however warn that they fear that their chances of survival in the long-term are less than 50 per cent without greater funding support from government.

While 81 per cent of their apprentices are still training, the providers have stopped receiving funding for 15 per cent, or 12,150, who have been put on a break in learning and 4 per cent, or 3,240, who have been made redundant.

The Department for Education has so far refused to comply with Cabinet Office guidance to continue paying private providers in advance of delivery during the coronavirus crisis.

But grant funded colleges continue to be paid on profile for various funding streams including for 16 to 19s and the adult education budget.

The majority of mayoral combined authorities, who control their own adult education budget, are complying with the Cabinet Office’s guidance and have promised to pay private providers in advance of delivery.

For independent providers with national contracts administered by the Education and Skills Funding Agency, officials have said they should seek Treasury support instead, such as the emergency loan scheme announced last month.

AELP’s survey found that just two private providers have successfully obtained a loan so far.

Thirty nine were still waiting to hear back from their bank; five had had their applications rejected; and 25 found that they were not eligible.

The survey also found that 45 (35 per cent) of the 150 providers claimed they will need to downsize, 17 (11 per cent) will mothball, and 12 (8 per cent) will shut their business completely if no guarantees of financial support from DfE is forthcoming.

Sectors most adversely affected, according to the AELP, are health and social care; early years educators; hospitality and catering; and the motor trades.

While “virtually all” providers have managed to keep some staff working full-time, 83 per cent are furloughing employees who are then unable to support the delivery of training.

At this stage, only “small numbers” of staff have been asked to accept a pay cut or face the prospect of redundancy.

Last week, FE Week reported on how all 28 staff at one provider, West Berkshire Training Consortium, had taken a 25 per cent pay cut for the next sixth months to keep the business afloat.

Matt Garvey, the provider’s managing director, said this “drastic” measure was taken to “postpone disaster” and prevent the organisation from going out of business.

Mark Dawe, AELP’s, chief executive, said training providers are “doing their absolute best” to keep apprentices and other trainees learning in extraordinary circumstances, but “we are living on borrowed time”.  

“The longer the Department for Education mysteriously fails to explain why it is refusing to comply with the Cabinet Office Covid guidelines and to change its position on funding accordingly, the greater the damage will be when the country needs to be maximising skills training capacity for picking up the economy when the pandemic is over,” he added.

Apprenticeships and skills minister Gillian Keegan sent a letter to training providers last month to say the DfE is “working closely with Treasury to monitor how the support packages are benefitting organisations and to consider any further action which may be required”.

A DfE spokesperson said: “It’s great to see that 81 per cent of apprentices have been able to continue their studies which means that their providers will continue to be paid for the training they deliver.

“Where learning cannot be delivered online or where training needs to be paused, the government is taking unprecedented steps to support individuals and businesses effected by coronavirus.

“This includes setting up the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme to fund 80 per cent of wages for furloughed staff, and deferring £30 billion of taxes until the end of the financial year. We are continuing to monitor the situation closely and considering any further action which may be required.”

How we are supporting our community in the face of this pandemic

Colleges exist to enrich and serve their community, leaving no-one behind especially in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, writes Nikos Savvas

Over the weekend, many of us will have started week three of ‘self-isolation and social distancing’. A pandemic is something none of us has experienced before and we are all trying to fumble our way through this extraordinary situation. We have all seen and experienced both acts of utter selflessness as well as acts of behaviour that driven by fear and ignorance resulted in empty shelves in our supermarkets. 

As a kid I heard the quote ‘the measure of a civilisation is how it treats its weakest members’, and it stuck with me. Self-isolation and social distancing is not only a story of self-preservation but also a story of empathy and care for some of the most vulnerable in our society. The stories of kindness and humanity are overtaking the stories of selfishness and ignorance and fear.

We are also finding new and innovative ways of overcoming our problems. Thanks to our collective human spirit and our thirst for community, human connection and care and love we are using different methods to socially connect and support one-another. To consciously act in ways that lessen the pain of loneliness and isolation to the betterment of both our inner circle of friends and family as well as to our wider community of neighbours. Last Sunday I had dinner with my self-isolating elderly parents via phone, and on Tuesday morning we had a coffee break with all our colleagues at the college online.

Almost universally we are uttering the phrase ‘Hi, I just called to check in on you. How are you?” or “How can I help – can I do anything for you?”. We are finding ways to bridge the gap of social distancing and are forming new, dynamic micro-communities with an energy and generosity that is quite extraordinary.

As a college, we exist purely to enrich and serve our community, leaving no-one behind. I have been exceptionally proud of the work our staff and students have volunteered to do in order to support our community. Hundreds have volunteered to join the NHS community workforce. Several have started support groups in their communities. 

Students have volunteered at care homes and, whilst there, helped relatives set up digital communication systems to allow them to stay connected to their nearest and dearest. They have made fresh bread and other food essentials to deliver to vulnerable people in the community.

As a college, we have developed extensive resources and activities which parents can access online to support children who are being home schooled and we have donated masks, cleaning supplies and protective gear to NHS front line staff. We have also offered up the college as facility for the NHS to use should they need to; and we hosted teams from the West Suffolk NHS Foundation Trust to give them a safe space to deliver essential training to staff.

In a matter of days, we rebuilt our entire college operations online. Creating virtual classrooms, course study groups, webinars, vlogs, audio lectures and a system of support meetings to ensure students have continuity of education and wrap-around support. The college’s animal studies department live-streamed to over 1,200 people from across the globe; giving ‘self-isolating’ people the opportunity to connect, tour the centre, meet the animals and learn about their care and post questions.

I have been astounded by how quickly teachers have turned to online and social platforms to create really exceptional distance delivery; and education leaders across the country are united believing this period of ‘self-isolation and social distancing’ will have a transformative effect on the way we approach and offer education in the future.

We are in uncertain times, but I am also so proud to see our community, and the college as a pillar of the community, uniting together in the face of this pandemic and creating an ever-stronger, supportive community which leaves no-one behind.

Free recording: Response to Ofqual’s guidance on grading vocational qualifications

Last week, Ofqual published their guidance on arrangements for grading BTEC, functional skills and other vocational qualifications this summer.

While we wait for further guidance to be released after Easter, FE Week editor Nick Linford hosted a webinar yesterday to run through what has been announced so far.

He was joined by City & Guilds managing director David Phillips, NCFE chief executive David Gallagher, Pearson’s senior vice president for BTECs and apprenticeships Cindy Rampersaud, and Federation of Awarding Bodies chief executive Tom Bewick.

You can watch it back for free by clicking here.

Further FE Week webinars will be announced throughout the pandemic to help support the sector.

Ofqual seeks views on plans for teachers to estimate GCSE and A-level grades

The sector has just days to respond to an Ofqual consultation on its plans for teacher calculated GCSE and A-level grades.

Views on the exams regulator’s “exceptional arrangements”, put forward following the cancellation of this summer’s exam series, need to be submitted by 29 April.

The consultation covers several areas including how the regulator should standardise grades, how the appeals system should work, sanctions for malpractice and a potential exam series in the autumn.

Chief regulator Sally Collier said: “All those students, parents, teachers and others affected by these unprecedented circumstances can be assured that we will continue to work urgently, with stakeholders and representative bodies across the sector and officials in the Department for Education, to put in place the best possible arrangements on their behalf.”

The consultation can be viewed here.

 

Proposals

As previously announced, schools and colleges will submit judgements on the grade each student would “most likely” have received had the exams taken place, and the rank order of each student.

Ofqual states this will be “holistic judgments” informed by evidence including homework, mock exams and non-exam assessments.

The regulator is now proposing that exam boards should only accept assessment grades and rank orders from a school or college if their principal, headteacher, chief executive or “nominated deputy” has made a “declaration as to their accuracy and integrity”.

The regulator is also proposing that pupils entered for exams in year 10 and below should now get calculated grades this summer, after previously saying they would only be awarded to year 11 students and above.

“While we believe the arguments to be finely balanced, we are proposing that, in the interests of the students who had expected to take exams, this should be permitted,” Ofqual said.

Today’s consultation also proposes that “statistical standardisation” to fully determine this summer’s exam grades should draw on three sources of evidence to prevent “bias”: historical outcomes for each school and college; the prior attainment (Key Stage 2 or GCSE) of this year’s students and those in previous years within each centre; the expected national grade distribution for the subject “given the prior attainment of the national entry”.

As result of this “standardisation model”, the final results students receive will “not necessarily be the same” as the school and college assessment grades.

Therefore, the regulator believes that assessment grades, rank order information, and the judgements on which these are founded, should be “confidential until after results have been issued”.

Ofqual said it “recognises” the possibility that some schools and colleges, students and others may “try to exploit the exceptional arrangements we propose to put in place this summer, including by seeking inappropriately to influence centre assessment grades or rank order information”, so it “expects” exam boards to allow this to be “investigated as potential malpractice, leading to the potential imposition of sanctions”.

As the normal reviews and appeal processes also cannot operate this summer, the regulator proposes that appeals should only be allowed “on the grounds that the centre made a data error when submitting its information; or similarly, that the exam board made a mistake when calculating, assigning or communicating a grade”.

Ofqual has also put forward that exam boards should only consider appeals submitted by schools or colleges on behalf of students, but not those submitted by individual students.

The regulator is also proposing to permit additional exams available in the autumn series for students that believe the results issued in the summer “do not reflect their likely performance had they taken an exam”.

However, entries to the autumn series “should be limited to” those who were entered for the summer series (by the 20 February 2020), or those who the exam board believes have made a “compelling case” about their intention to have entered for the summer series, as well as to students “who would normally be permitted to take GCSEs in English language and maths in November”.

A further consultation just on the autumn exam series will be launched at a later date.

DfE cancels achievement rates publication in 2021 for all providers

The government will not publish provider-level achievement rates for the current academic year due to the coronavirus crisis.

However, the Department for Education will “still consider” publishing the national data.

The achievement rates in question are for 2019/20 – where learners are due to pass between 1 August 2019 and 31 July 2020 – and would have been published in March 2021.

In an update released today, the DfE said: “We will not publish any institution-level qualification achievement rates in the national achievement rate tables for the 2019 to 2020 academic year in response to Coronavirus (COVID-19).

“The performance tables that were due to be released in October and December 2020, and in January and March 2021, will not go ahead.

“The department will still consider publishing national data for the 2019 to 2020 academic year.”

It follows the DfE’s decision to not hold schools and colleges to account on the basis of exams and assessment data from summer 2020.

Last month the government announced the cancellation of this summer’s exams series.

On April 3, Ofqual revealed that teacher calculations will be used to grade GCSE and A-level students who were due to sit their exams over the coming months (you can read our explainer here).

And last week, Ofqual confirmed the same method would be used for grading the majority of BTEC and other vocational and technical qualifications (VTQs), including functional skills.

However, the exams regulator is undertaking further work to identify those VTQs where this approach is not appropriate, with further details expected to be released after the Easter break.

College loses £91k after ending the wait for a favourable Nigerian exchange rate

A college tied up in a long-running legal dispute with a Nigerian State has accepted a loss of £91,000 after clearing out their Nigerian bank account.

Portsmouth-based Highbury College has been holding onto cash that was paid in the currency of Naira, previously estimated to sit at around £400,000, for a number of years.

The cash-strapped college, which is also currently engaged in a £1 million legal battle with HMRC and has delayed signing off on its 2018/19 accounts following FE Commissioner intervention, had been waiting for a good exchange rate to recover the funds.

But a decision was taken by the board in recent months to retrieve it, and only £309,000 was repatriated.

A spokesperson told FE Week: “These funds were a legacy from an international project which concluded some years ago.

“The college had been waiting for a more favourable exchange rate which unfortunately has not materialised and was not forecast.”

Legal action to recover an additional £1.4 million that the college claims to be owed is “ongoing”.

The alleged debt is being held by the Cross River State Government – a coastal state in southern Nigeria.

In 2013, the college entered a partnership with the State to design a “demand-driven curriculum” and run a polytechnic training provider, called the Institute of Technology and Management.

But Highbury pulled out of the arrangement following a change in political parties in Nigeria in 2015, alongside a drop in oil prices which slowed down the economy.

Confidential board minutes obtained by this newspaper in November revealed that Highbury believes they have a “medium opportunity” of recovering just £872,000 of the £1.4 million.

Court cases had been pushed back a number of times throughout 2019. The college’s spokesperson said this week that due to the “ongoing nature of the legal proceedings”, they are “not able to comment further at this time”.

The confidential minutes also revealed the college has an ongoing legal challenge against HMRC for “recovery of VAT” totalling £1 million.

Highbury’s spokesperson said it is “one of a number of colleges that are challenging HMRC’s interpretation of Lennartz adjustments” in relation to new buildings on its main campus in Hampshire.

The college has been through a period of turbulence in recent years. Its accounts for 2017/18 recorded a £2.48 million deficit and showed a quick sale of their City of Portsmouth Centre for £4 million less than it had been purchased for.

Highbury axed its sixth form last year owing to financial pressures and made a number of staff redundant.

The government intervened at the college in September 2019 after an FE Week investigation revealed how its long-standing principal, Stella Mbubaegbu, had spent £150,000 on expenses in four years, which included one-off lavish items such as a £434 pair of designer headphones and a lobster dinner.

The principal has since been replaced in the interim by Penny Wycherley, while chair Tim Mason has been replaced by ex-chief executive of the Association of Colleges, Martin Doel.

The college’s 2018/19 financial statements, which should have been signed off and published by 31 January, continue to be delayed.

Labour appoints shadow apprenticeships minister as Hardy holds onto colleges

Toby Perkins has been appointed Labour’s new shadow apprenticeships and lifelong learning minister – separate to the shadow further and higher education minister position.

Emma Hardy was reappointed to the latter role today, after having represented the opposition for the entire FE and skills portfolio since January.

Perkins has been the MP for Chesterfield since 2010 and was previously a shadow defence minister before resigning in 2016.

Since then, he has served on the Commons’ Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee.

Hardy was originally appointed to the post following the December 2019 general election, after former holder Gordon Marsden lost his seat.

Following today’s decision, Hardy said: “Really delighted to carry on and a brief that I find really exciting and interesting. Lovely of Keir Starmer to call me and ask me to continue. Clearly a lot of work to do in constructively holding the government to account for the decisions they make.”

Hardy is the MP for Hull West and Hessle was previously a member of the Commons Education Select Committee after having been elected at the 2017 general election.

A former primary school teacher and union activist, she will serve on Labour’s education team alongside new shadow education secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, whose appointment was announced earlier this week.

Full steam ahead as T-level qualification content launched

Jennifer Coupland reflects on the launch of the first technical qualifications (TQs) for T-levels and how they will be taught from September

The impact of Covid-19 on training providers and schools is a major consideration in all our work. But though it’s right to focus on the crisis now, we also have an eye to the future.  We will come out of this crisis and when we do, having a plan for higher-quality technical education will be more important than ever. 

It’s clear that employers and the wider economy are going to need all the help they can get to rebuild. T-levels, initially on a small-scale for wave one and allied to apprenticeships, can support a much-needed drive to boost skills of the next generation of young people entering the workplace.

The Secretary of State for Education is committed to the launch of the first T-levels in the next academic year, as planned.

The institute and our partner employers, awarding organisations and Ofqual have made sure that the TQs which underpin the T-levels, are first-rate products that deliver for employers and most importantly students.

The first TQs have now been approved and published. These have been designed by awarding organisations with the support of the Institute and employers from different sectors.

Wave 1 providers have worked closely with awarding organisations on these and now have them in good time to prepare to teach the first students. The Department for Education will keep the impact of Covid-19 on provider readiness under review and will support where needed. The Awarding organisations and the Education and Training Foundation are preparing the sector for first teaching.

T-levels will be the technical equivalent to completing three A Levels, combining classroom theory, practical learning and an industry placement.

The classroom element of the TQs will include broad ‘core content’ which gives the learner an overview of key aspects of the profession and will include a project set by employers to replicate experience of a workplace environment. They will then train for a more specific ‘occupational specialism’ to develop and practice their skills.

For example, in education and childcare, students will be set real-life scenarios, requiring them to consider the specific needs of a child and to research and plan how to use their practical knowledge to most effectively support a child’s development.

On the design, surveying and planning for construction course the civil engineering project could include producing calculations, drawings and reports for the design of a new development.

And in the world of digital production, design and development students will learn the most up-to-date programming languages, emerging technologies and trends, before using them to develop digital solutions to real problems.

This will help students emerge with the right skills to make a direct impact in their chosen profession.

It all adds up to an impressive offer and I have seen during my first six months at the Institute, and through my previous role as the DfE’s director of Professional and Technical Education, how much expertise and hard work has gone into getting them right.

Work is also ongoing with preparing for the second and third waves of the new qualifications. More than 200 businesses, including Fujitsu, Skanska, and GlaxoSmithKline as well as many small and medium sized firms, have supported with designing the course content so far.

There is much to be proud of. We are sensibly starting on a small-scale and planning for steady progress in terms of student engagement over the next five to ten years. The success of this exciting project should be judged on those terms.

In these troubled times, it is important to focus as much as possible on the positives. T Levels are being delivered on schedule and to a high standard. It is a huge team effort and I would like to congratulate everyone across the sector who has contributed so far.