Oliver formally confirmed as next Ofsted chief inspector

Sir Martyn Oliver’s appointment as the next chief inspector of Ofsted has been approved by the Privy Council.

The chief executive of the Outwood Grange Academies Trust said he would be “empathetic, compassionate and understanding of the challenges that those of us working in education”.

Oliver was announced earlier this year as the government’s preferred candidate, and endorsed by the education committee last month. Approval by the Privy Council – which advises the King – means he will take over from Amanda Spielman in January.

Spielman will step down in December following seven years in the job. The normal tenure is five years, but her term was extended because of the Covid pandemic.

Education secretary Gillian Keegan said Oliver was an “accomplished school and trust leader with a tremendous record of driving up standards and I’m delighted to announce that he has been confirmed as Ofsted’s next chief inspector”.

“I want to thank Amanda Spielman for her work over the past seven years. She successfully led Ofsted through a series of significant reforms in education and children’s services, alongside championing a broad and balanced curriculum.”

‘Deeply honoured’

Oliver said he was “deeply honoured and hugely privileged” to take on the role, and said he was “looking forward to engaging with all parts of the sector that Ofsted regulates and inspects through a big listen”.

“I promise to be empathetic, compassionate and understanding of the challenges that those of us working in education, children’s services and skills face, especially in terms of the recovery post-covid, and will ensure that we always take a holistic view for the good of all children, especially the most vulnerable and those who are disadvantaged.”

During his committee hearing, Oliver said he wanted more serving leaders conducting Ofsted inspections, and for in-house inspectors to be able to serve part-time in other organisations.

But he was also accused of misleading MPs over claims exclusion rates in his turnaround trust’s schools were “lower than most” in the areas they work.

Apprenticeship levy reform must be handled with care

I’m sure FE Week readers will have seen the main headlines from the prime minister and secretary of state for education’s conference speeches in Manchester and their opposition counterparts in Liverpool. What those at home don’t see is some of the interesting debates and meetings that take place outside the main hall across the rest of the conference.

These fringe meetings often give a glimpse into political parties’ deeper thinking about future direction. At this year’s conferences, a recurring theme for discussions was the potential to refine the apprenticeship levy. We already knew that Labour are committed to moving to a wider “skills and growth levy”. But with the Liberal Democrats agreeing to reform the levy at their conference, it was interesting to hear so many Tory MPs also suggesting their party should go down this route.

In sum, growing pressure means we’re looking at when, not if, the levy will be reformed.

One of our sector’s major challenges is to offer an apprenticeship system which is properly funded and flexible enough for employers to take full advantage of. With a general election looming, political parties are beginning to put together their manifestos, and we all know that any party serious about governing must put skills at the heart of its plans.

Talk alone won’t cut it, though. We need to see real investment in skills giving learners a real choice of high-quality skills provision. Improving the apprenticeship system must be a major priority for whoever wins the next election.

However, AELP has previously been cautious about advocating for introducing flexibility within the apprenticeship levy. In the 2021/22 financial year, 99.6 per cent of the apprenticeship budget was spent. Last year, with the ending of incentives and an increase in the budget, spend was 96 per cent of the programme budget. This shows that employers are hungry for apprenticeships but that any additional flexibility for levy payers needs to be tempered. Allowing them to access the levy funding for non-apprenticeship training is on the face of it desirable, but should be off-set by dedicated support for SMEs. 

It should be done in a gradual way with a ringfenced budget

Putting learner and employer choice first is one of AELP’s core values. Recognising that for some organisations an apprenticeship may not always be the right method for upskilling staff is important. Allowing levy-paying employers a degree of wider flexibility to fund the procurement of high-quality accredited qualifications could be beneficial. However, we should recognise that doing so will put pressure on the apprenticeship programme budget. We cannot afford for the future apprenticeship levy to become a free-for-all; the scope of flexibility needs to be tight, targeted and ideally link back to apprenticeships.

If levy reform is to take place, it should be done in a gradual way with a ringfenced budget that non-levy paying employers can access. This means government must acknowledge the growing divide between the level of money paid through the levy by employers and the actual apprenticeship programme budget. Employers are being short-changed and that extra funding would be transformational. 

We also need to recognise the massive role non-levy paying employers play, traditionally taking on a disproportionate number of young people. If we squeeze out SMEs, we squeeze out our young people from apprenticeships. This would have disastrous consequences for social mobility.

In fact, SMEs need more support and a straightforward way for that to happen would be by removing the requirement for these businesses to co-invest 5 per cent. These types of employers often do not have the capacity to navigate the existing system, and the co-investment model discourages them from investing in skills.

Following the removal of the non-levy cap, the scrapping of co-investment would also mean no need for levy transfer functionality. This has been a well-meaning part of the system but adds complexity and bureaucracy. With additional flexibility in the levy, it would likely be utilised less as levy payers would have less to transfer.

At the heart of a sustainable skills system will be ensuring the apprenticeship model is fit for purpose and fit for the future. Levy reform can play a part in that – but it must be done in a well thought-out and sensible way. 

If only political attention stretched as far as the classroom

If you had a five-minute slot on the political party conference circuit, what would you change in further education? And would you need a glitter bomb or just some sparkle to get the message across? For while the parties of all stripes sell new wheezes, funding pots and ‘Advanced BS’, back at the digital chalk-face the issues looming large tend not to be quite as catchy: cash investment in student opportunity.

Of course, the three political parties no doubt recognise this. But the means of driving this investment, whether it’s the Lib Dems extending the current English and maths tuition funding stream or Labour announcing a new Technical Excellence College standard (remarkably similar to the current Institutes of Technology), feel like technocratic tweaks. They create either a new audit demand or a regional bidding war for the latest kitemark.

In reality, whenever there’s a new pot of cash to draw down, there’s funding returned and opportunity lost when it could be merged with current rules instead. And in the meantime, a huge amount of energy is spent proving, auditing and recording its use.

Back in the classroom, our reality is students choosing between immediate cash for whatever work is around or the possible investment that education represents. Given that we know economic security correlates with educational outcomes, attendance and enrolment, a return of the mid-2000s education maintenance allowance would more directly tilt those choices towards the aims of all parties: more students doing better at 16-18.

Labour haven’t promised that yet, but a recognition of the economic constraints students face remains a thread in their thinking as they “work to ensure the cost-of-living crisis does not hold back students’ learning”. The Lib Dem mythical government, but realistic coalition or voting partner, would also boost funding for FE. The Conservatives target increased funding on teacher bonuses and a lift to English and maths funding. It seems we have their attention.

Our reality is students choosing between work and education

For adult students, negotiating their enrolment with the benefits and loans system is an achievement in itself. If you are on Access to HE, then you qualify for an advanced learner loan for your fees (which is written off when you finish uni) but not a maintenance loan, and your study hours will be similar to some universities.

However, you probably won’t qualify for a council tax discount, and your universal credit will be affected. In the meantime, you have the likely hurdles of childcare, funding rules and a reduced income as well as the small matter of learning and following your ambitions. Most Access students study healthcare-related courses and are the NHS of the future. I hear there’s a recruitment crisis.

But perhaps the most curious announcement is the Conservatives promising to end a reform they have barely birthed. PM Sunak proclaimed a new Advanced British Standard, merging A Levels and the nascent T Levels with a side of English and maths for a post-16 qualification of the future.

While they may wrap this reform with the Union flag, its origins feel particularly European, following elements of the French system, only with fewer hours dedicated to it. But with the plan announced alongside a ten-year timescale, just as this government looks like it will exit stage right by January 2025 at the very latest, the timing is more positioning than policy.

Much like HS2, this is a reform destined to have its ambition stopped short. There’s also the small matter that it’s the minority of students at post-16 that study either A or T Levels, despite their focus in the national conscience.

That Sunak and Starmer have gone head-to-head on education policy is no surprise; that FE and skills has been the battleground is more so. Those of us in the FE classroom are probably tired of ‘Cinderella sector’ references and all it implies.

Rather than wait for glass slippers, it’s time to lobby and invite MPs into our colleges while we have their attention – not for ribbon cutting, but reality checking.

Ofqual extends term-time checkpoints to hundreds of thousands more VTQ students

Ofqual’s new term-time checkpoints that aim to ensure vocational and technical qualification (VTQ) students get their results on time have been extended to level 1/2 and level 2 courses.

The expansion beyond level 3 VTQs forms part of the regulator’s efforts to avoid a repeat of the 2022 BTECs fiasco that led to tens of thousands of delayed results.

In March, Ofqual introduced strict deadlines for awarding bodies to agree with schools and colleges which students should expect to receive their level 3 VTQ grades on results day.

The regulator also introduced a term-time checkpoint for schools and colleges to check any missing information is addressed as quickly as possible before results day.

In a letter from Ofqual’s outgoing chief regulator Jo Saxton, schools and colleges were today told that the term-time checkpoint, which should be completed before the May exam season, will now apply to level 1/2 and level 2 VTQs for 2024 onwards.

“The checkpoint process is designed to ensure that students who need a result on results days get one,” Saxton said.

“Schools and colleges recognised that it would be helpful to extend this arrangement to level 1/2 and level 2 qualifications, where they are taken alongside GCSEs at key stage 4, for progression,” the letter added. “Ofqual is expanding the scope of these arrangements accordingly.”

Around 370,000 level 3 VTQ results were awarded in 2022/23.

An additional 400,000 level 1/2 and level 2 VTQs are taken by students each year. Level 1/2 courses are an alternative qualification to GCSEs for learners aged 14 to 16 that includes a vocational and project-based aspect. They span both levels 1 and 2 qualifications.

Saxton said the “ability” of staff to review results and engage with awarding organisations prior to results days proved a “critical aspect of the success of the summer of 2023”, and recognised this was a “demanding time for schools and colleges”.

She added: “If your school or college handles high volumes of results, I encourage you to consider which staff will need to be available.”

The letter said that individual awarding organisations will confirm when results for their qualifications will be issued to schools and colleges.

Colleges should expect Ofqual’s Information Hub to publish awarding organisations’ key dates and deadlines in the new year.

Ofqual has been told that awarding organisations’ communication with colleges “sometimes felt overwhelming and heavy-handed” last year and is therefore working to consider “the content, volume and timing” of their communication with schools and colleges.

An Ofqual spokesperson said: “Following feedback from exams officers and teaching staff, individual awarding organisations will set their own dates for term time processes that make sure those processes are completed prior to when the main exam season begins in May.  

“Awarding organisations will tell schools and colleges what their dates are. Ofqual will publish awarding organisations’ key dates and deadlines on its Information Hub in January.”

For the 2023 level 3 results arrangements, awarding bodies had to agree with schools and colleges by May 26 which students expect to receive grades on level 3 results day in the summer. They also had to check up mid-term-time on missing information needed for students’ results by June 23. The deadline for issuing VTQ results to schools and colleges was August 14 – three days before the level 3 results day.

The change came after 21,000 BTEC and Cambridge Technical (CTEC) results were issued late in 2022, leaving students stuck and in the dark.

The party conferences mark a historic moment for our sector

I’ve been a champion for skills and FE for over 50 years and coming to party political conferences for almost as long. This year has been like no other. In their conference speeches, the prime minister, Rishi Sunak and the man who aspires to the role, Keir Starmer name-checked FE Colleges and pointed to clear policy actions they would take on skills and technical qualifications. 

2024 might well go down in history as the year in which there was agreement, at last, that skills change people’s lives, help create safer, connected and thriving communities, and increase the productivity that drives economic growth. What in the past was a political football, not seriously embraced by either party, has well and truly ‘come home’.  

How timely then that the post-Augar partners who came together as the Future Skills Coalition (FSC), namely City and Guilds, AoC and AELP, with the support of a wide range of key partners and employers, made this year the occasion to create the Skills Hub, a zone in the main exhibitor area of each conference. Timely alignment and hard-won, clever synchronicity. 

The prominent presence of the Skills Hub stand, showcasing a dazzling array of employers and skills providers and partners, together with a series of round tables and fringe events at this year’s party conferences is testimony to the collective endeavour of all involved. It represents a significant move forward that all those concerned with skills delivery, standards, and improvement were able to unite around three central policy areas which any government that takes skills seriously, of whatever political hue or makeup, would be wise to heed: 

  • a national policy strategy supporting local, inclusive growth 
  • a right to lifelong learning free from restrictive constraints 
  • fair, accessible and effective funding 

Having reached such a milestone for the sector, it was heartening that the new shadow skills minister, Seema Malhotra responded with an equally welcoming collaborative approach, making it clear that she will work with sector partners to design deliverable implementation plans.  

It represents a significant move forward

What then are the next steps and priorities for the FSC? How will FSC ensure that the insights of the practitioners assembled in Manchester and Liverpool will be fed into emerging post-election actions? The diversity of sector partners ensures a range of different ideas, which can be picked up by politicians aiming to translate political decision and policy determination into effective action and successful outcomes. It is worth highlighting, however, that there was broad agreement on addressing the following four policy areas.

Workforce planning

All stakeholders want to see immediate action on workforce development, recruitment, and retention, by putting in place a plan to enable FE colleges and independent training providers to build capacity in their employees and to attract new staff with the expertise required to teach the skills needed in today’s and tomorrow’s labour market.

Building on the sector’s strengths 

Even if politics requires a ‘cosmetic’ re-branding in some areas, the aim should be to improve on some of the innovative foundations already laid over the past 13 years (e.g. LSIPs and LLE).

Connecting and devolving

Reform should focus on better connecting the different parts of the post-16 skills system, by reforming operational aspects such as the apprenticeship levy and the engagement of SMEs, and by supporting evolving models of devolution in areas of England that have a clear vision and accountable structure for skills delivery.

Measured progress on qualifications 

The sector is almost unanimous in its desire for pausing the defunding of level 3 qualifications and reviewing with employers and providers a reasonable timescale for the rollout of T Levels. 

Over the coming months, I am clear that the sector stands ready to respond to the important intentions signalled by political leaders. We look forward to meeting with the current and shadow secretaries of state for education and their skills ministers to work through practical and fundable ways in which political ambition and sector capacity can be united to ensure skills are at the heart of the next decade of our nation’s renewal.

How apprenticeships can provide effective employee retention

Apprenticeships are a great way for employers to tackle skills gaps and develop trained employees where they are needed most in the workforce. Over the last 20 years, Pearson has supported employee apprenticeships, recognising them as a fantastic development tool for people of all educational backgrounds looking to start their careers, reskill or upskill. Apprenticeships not only formalise the structure of an organisation’s learning and development plan but can improve staff retention. A 2022 report by the Department of Education found that 62% of apprentices stayed working for the company that trained them after completing their apprenticeship and 76% of employers said that training existing employees as apprentices improved staff retention.

So how can apprenticeships aid the development of a compelling retention plan for your business?

Recognition and reward

Workplace recognition and rewarding high performance is crucial in building an employee experience that meets their human needs, as well as building their confidence. It’s also important as it’s linked to aspiration. People want to be the best that they can be, and an apprenticeship gives them a structure to do that within their career development. Recognition of completing an apprenticeship and reaching milestones elevates people out of their specific teams, raises their profile and enables them to be seen and move around the business. At Pearson, apprentices have been headhunted by various parts of the business because their profile has been raised and their contributions in their role have been recognised.

Support structures

Changes in the economic landscape post Covid have transformed working practices and highlighted the importance of making sure apprentices are fully supported. By introducing some simple support practices for apprentices such as weekly catch-up calls by line managers and by the training provider, they can very quickly begin to acquire the skills they need and start to develop new ideas and contribute to successful business strategies. By supporting new apprentices this way, they feel encouraged and more likely to strive to progress within the business, which will positively impact employee retention.

Human-centric approach

Businesses also need to be mindful of the ‘human’ element of work, recognising that people need more than just to work, they need to enjoy coming to work and feel they are giving something back. An idea that Pearson uses is introducing apprentices to the Learner Voice strategy. This encompasses a range of internal and external activities where individuals can pick and choose what they want to be involved in; brand ambassadors that support other apprentices, joining external networking groups, and involving senior leaders that sponsor and mentor apprentices. It’s a great way to create a sense of shared experience and community, discover new skills and provide a successful tool for driving employee engagement and retention.

Read why Ali feels her apprenticeship experience has been pivotal to her career development and progression.

Ali Titmas – Customer Success Team Manager

Following a stint in a customer service role after finishing her A levels, Ali took the opportunity to enrol on a Sales and Telesales Level 3 Apprenticeship at Pearson in March 2019. Four years on, she is a Customer Success Team Manager responsible for a team of nine and is two years into her Level 6 Degree Apprenticeship.

Q: HOW HAS THE APPRENTICESHIP HELPED BUILD YOUR SKILLS?

It’s given me a massive amount of confidence. I’m able to communicate more effectively and as the depth of the apprenticeship is so broad, anything I learn I can bring in different perspectives to what I am doing.

Q: WHAT HAVE BEEN THE MAIN BENEFITS FOR YOU OF AN APPRENTICESHIP?

The amount of experience and career growth that I have had within five years with Pearson is brilliant. It shows that I can challenge myself, I’ve got the skills, and I can learn anything I need to be successful in any role that I am placed in. I don’t think I would have had this amount of career growth if it weren’t for the apprenticeships I’ve done.

Q: HOW HAS PEARSON SUPPORTED YOU DURING YOUR APPRENTICESHIP?

My manager was an apprentice so the support I got from him was amazing because he knew what I was going through and that shows the broadness of the apprenticeship scheme in Pearson. It doesn’t matter who you are or what role you do, you can still do an apprenticeship. I’m also able to give that experience back as I’m part of the apprentice ambassador team, so I get to share my experience with other apprentices and support them.

Find out more about Pearson Apprenticeships

Qualifications reform can’t put politicians’ interests above learners’

Many of the lines in the Advanced British Standard policy document published last week could have been lifted from #ProtectStudentChoice campaign materials: “we must end the artificial separation between technical and academic routes”, “not everyone is ready to decide their future career path at a young age”, “the economy of the future will demand flexibility”.

But instead of reversing the disastrous decision to scrap BTECs, the government used these arguments to justify the scrapping of A and T Levels as well. As U-turns go, this was as spectacular as it was rapid.

On Tuesday, T Levels were still a “once in a generation opportunity to reform our technical education system”, a “gold standard” technical route for 16- to 19-year-olds that complemented the equally gold standard A Levels in a parallel academic route. On Wednesday, both qualifications were just not golden enough and the Advanced British Standard (presumably a platinum standard qualification) would take their place.

There are many aspects of the Advanced British Standard (ABS) that are appealing – particularly the plan for greater breadth in the curriculum backed by more funding. We share the government’s ambition to develop a world-class 16-19 education system and welcome the pledge to increase investment in this crucial phase. 

But it is difficult to bridge the credibility gap between vision and reality, not least because the government has spent the past 13 years running in the opposite direction.

For example, real-terms funding for students in sixth form colleges was 15 per cent lower in 2022/23 than it was in 2010/11. The removal of AS Levels has led to a narrower curriculum in almost every sixth form college. And the government has consistently fallen well short of its teacher recruitment target, which makes the ABS plan to increase the number of taught hours by 15 per cent difficult to take seriously. 

As our Desperate Measures report set out last month, the government’s review of level 3 qualifications has been a largely evidence-free process and legitimate concerns are routinely ignored. But however misguided, the government’s model was at least clear: A and T Levels as the centrepieces of academic and technical routes.

It is difficult to bridge the credibility gap between vision and reality

Now the government plans to consult on a plan that is its exact opposite. The ‘minister knows best’ approach had blown the level 3 reform process in the wrong direction and now the ‘prime minister knows best’ approach is blowing it in another. 

The right direction is one where the interests of students and their career prospects are put before the interests of politicians. To develop a world-class system, government first needs to put the foundations in place. Two years ago we set out a nine-word manifesto: “Don’t scrap BTECs. Raise the rate. Leave us alone.” That’s not a bad place to start.

The government should then embark on a genuine, inclusive and wide-ranging consultation about the long-term future of 16-19 education, starting from first principles. Few have any doubts that the current sixth form offer is too narrow and must evolve to meet new challenges.

But let’s not be naïve. The ABS was primarily created for electoral rather than educational reasons. The short term-funding that accompanies it should not distract us from the fact that no thought was given to the students, particularly T Level students, who enrolled on “gold standard” qualifications that will now be scrapped.

It is possible that after 13 years, the government has had a Damascene conversion to the cause of 16-19 education. It is also possible that the government has thrown T level students and providers under a bus in order to eke out a few extra votes in the impending general election.

You do not need a qualification in Advanced BS to work out which is the most likely explanation, particularly as the government has already ruled out reversing its plan to scrap BTECs.

The Sixth Form Colleges Association will engage in the debate around ABS, but we will do so in a clear-eyed way. Our aim throughout will be to ensure the long-term interests of students are put before the short-term interests of politicians. 

Dwindling SME starts drag down apprenticeship figures in 2022/23

Apprenticeship starts for the whole of 2022/23 fell by 3 per cent on the previous academic year – solely driven by falling numbers in small and medium-sized employers, new data shows.

Provisional government figures published this morning show 336,510 starts reported to date for last year compared to the 347,920 recorded at the same point in 2021/22.

Starts for 16- to 18-year-olds held up compared to other age groups, increasing by a few hundred from 77,150 to 77,510. Apprenticeships for those aged 19 to 24 fell by the biggest proportion of all age groups – declining by 7 per cent from 105,940 to 98,490.

Continuing the trend since the launch of the apprenticeship levy in 2017, it was level 2 starts that saw the biggest drop. Level 2 starts fell 17 per cent from 91,310 to 76,210. Higher apprenticeships at levels 4 and above grew by 7 per cent from 105,840 to 112,890.

Starts among levy-paying businesses also increased slightly, up by 2 per cent from 222,940 to 227,850.

Whereas starts for non-levy paying businesses dropped by 13 per cent from 124,980 to 108,660. It adds further evidence to the consistent message from providers and business leaders that SMEs find the apprenticeship system too difficult to navigate.

Simon Ashworth, director of policy at the Association of Employment and Learning Providers, said today’s figures show a “really concerning decline” in SMEs taking on apprentices, but “sadly do not come as a surprise”.

He told FE Week: “If we’re to support more SMEs harness the amazing opportunities that apprenticeships bring, we need a much more accessible and less bureaucratic apprenticeship service system, scrap the 5 per cent co-investment requirement for non-levy paying employers; and introduce more effective and targeted incentives for both employers and providers.

“The chancellor has the perfect opportunity to address this worrying decline in his forthcoming autumn statement, and we urge him to be decisive with targeted financial intervention.”

Worrying workforce data demands we focus more on adult skills

The long-term outlook for the labour market is bound to be high on the agenda leading up to the next general election. With 80 per cent of the 2030 workforce already in work today, adult education holds the key to upskilling and reskilling those most at risk of losing their jobs due to the rise of automation and AI.

The recently published results of Employer Survey 2022 highlight worrying increases in the proportion of employers reporting vacancies and skills gaps. Meanwhile, it is widely anticipated that trends including automation and AI will change the jobs available in the labour market and the skills needed to do these jobs. Goldman Sachs have even suggested that generative AI could substitute up to one-quarter of current work.

As with any change, there will be winners and losers. Projections from The Skills Imperative 2035 suggest some sectors (like transport), and occupations (e.g. receptionists) are likely to experience significant losses. Rethinking adult education is likely to be paramount to supporting these workers.

Sideways moves won’t be an option for everyone. Occupational change is now driven by ‘upgrading’ (the growth of higher-paid occupations), and job-to-job moves are less prevalent in declining occupations. More people in declining occupations need to be able to ‘upgrade’ into stable and expanding sectors.

This is more feasible for those with higher levels of transferable ‘essential employment skills’ (like problem solving and creativity), but these skills are less easily developed in roles performing routine and/or manual tasks. Peoples’ prospects of returning to work are also significantly greater if they have undertaken qualification-bearing training, yet people without ‘higher’ level qualifications are the least likely to receive qualification-bearing training at work.

Numbers of mature learners taking qualifications have declined considerably. From 2010/11 to 2020/21, the number of adult learners on qualifications equivalent to GCSEs or below fell by 50 per cent, and adults taking qualifications equivalent to A levels fell by one-third. This was partly due to large cuts to adult education funding, with total spending on adult education and apprenticeships falling by 38 per cent in real terms.

Rethinking adult education is likely to be paramount

The number of (mostly mature) students on part-time undergraduate degrees also halved, while numbers on ‘sub-degree’ qualifications plummeted by 28 per cent between 2015 and 2018 following funding reforms that saw means-tested tuition fee grants abolished.

These cuts are being partially reversed. Adults with few qualifications can access free 12-16 week training programmes, butthese are unlikely to contribute to qualifications. Adults without A level or equivalent qualifications will be able to gain their first full level 3 qualifications, but most people still won’t be able to afford a break from employment. Mature students studying higher technical qualifications will be able to access full living cost support, but they will still be reliant on non-means-tested loans.

Overall, spending on adult education and apprenticeships will still be 25 per cent lower in real terms in 2024/25 compared with 2010/11. Is this going to be enough for education to win the race with technology?

The UK stands out for having a large share of adults who only have low-level qualifications.  What if we took a leaf out of Norway’s playbook? In 2003/04, Norway began offering high-school dropouts a monthly stipend equivalent to around 13 per cent of median monthly income for 30-34 year-olds to have a second stab at completing upper secondary education. Rates of high school completion among the early treatment group subsequently increased significantly.

The UK, and England in particular, also stands out for having relatively few adults with mid-level qualifications such as HNCs and HNDs. UK adults are one-quarter as likely as adults from the US to have undertaken an advanced vocational qualification. What if we gave students who are eligible for the new part-time maintenance loan the option of a tuition fee grant instead? The Sutton Trust suggest this would come at low or zero additional cost per student and the long-term return on investment would be positive.

Faster change in the labour market strengthens the business case for reducing the costs for adults of returning to education. Through The Skills Imperative 2035, NFER will be further exploring how reforms to adult education could help mitigate the risks on the horizon.