Ten years have passed since it became compulsory to stay in education, apprenticeships or other work-based training until age 18. However, for most of this time only around 90 per cent of young people actually did so. We wouldn’t expect this rate to be 100 per cent as despite being a requirement, there are no repercussions for those that turn away from education, with increasing numbers becoming NEETs (not in education, employment or training) after they complete their GCSEs.
For most of the last decade this picture has been fairly static. However, new evidence suggests it’s time for policymakers to sit up and pay more attention to post-16 participation. Firstly, the Education Policy Institute’s annual report shows that the proportion of young people opting out of post-16 education entirely has been on the rise since the pandemic.
Secondly, it is young people from economically disadvantaged backgrounds who are becoming particularly more likely to disengage.
There will of course be cases where students dropping out of education after their GCSEs does not harm their long-term prospects. Some will find good employment or begin endeavours that lead to fulfilling careers. But this won’t be true for the majority.
DfE’s own statistics show that only a minority of those that weren’t in post-16 education or training secured sustained employment, and there’s a plethora of research showing how qualifications achieved in the 16-19 phase improve employment prospects.
Disadvantage gap
Our report sets out just how stark the situation is. Of those disadvantaged young people who took their GCSEs in 2022, more than one in five did not begin studying towards any substantial post-16 qualifications, or alternatives such as apprenticeships or traineeships. This compares to less than one in ten of their non-disadvantaged peers. And the gap between the two groups has widened by two percentage points in just the last two years, equating to thousands more disadvantaged young people leaving education at age 16.
The focus of our report for 16-19 education is usually to provide an update on the disadvantage attainment gap. On this we find that disadvantaged students were 3.3 grades behind other students across their best three qualifications in 2024. This is marginally worse than in 2023 and reflects zero progress since we started the time series in 2017. However, the overall attainment gap for all 16-19 year olds may be even worse than our analysis indicates, as
it does not take account of those not in education post-16. It is likely to be the lower attaining disadvantaged students who struggle the most in this crucial transition point between school and college.
Given our findings, calls for increased disadvantage funding in the form of a student premium payment are more pertinent than ever. Increased disadvantage funding for 16-19 providers by itself, however, would not be sufficient. Disadvantaged young people must be in education before they can benefit from any additional support, so further work must be undertaken to understand exactly what is happening on the ground, and the government must engage with this worsening problem urgently.
Increasing disengagement
Research cannot yet tell us exactly what is driving this trend. One likely explanation is the increasing disengagement from the education system that has led to an absence epidemic in pre-16 education is now affecting participation post-16. The rate of persistent and severe absenteeism at school has doubled since the pandemic, and it is likely the very same young people are then disengaging from education entirely at the end of year 11. The fact that if not done properly, post-16 education for lower attainers can feel like a cycle of failure will also not help. What’s more, this problem is only likely to be exacerbated by the population bulge that is now working its way through the 16-19 phase. With more students vying for places in some areas, the most vulnerable young people may find it even harder to secure a place on a suitable post-16 course without greater support.
While research continues to demonstrate that compulsory education to age 18 is beneficial, to reap this benefit, the government must ensure that there is a suitable, accessible and appealing post-16 education offer for all young people, and better support mechanisms must be put in place to ensure the most vulnerable are not allowed to fall through the gaps.
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