The number of young people not in education, employment or training (NEETs) is close to one million, figures show.
The Office for National Statistics estimates 987,000 young people aged 16 to 24, or 13.4 per cent of that age group, were classed as NEET between October and December.
This is a 41,000 increase on estimates for July to September and almost 300,000 higher than the same period in 2021 when the UK was emerging from the pandemic.
Overall, 595,000 of the total – about 60 per cent – were classed as inactive because they had not sought work within the previous four weeks or were unable to start work in the following two weeks.
The figures – which include young people who are unemployed, not in training or not counted in the labour force – are labelled as “official statistics in development” due to falling response rates to a survey they are partially based on.
They were nonetheless met with concern by employment experts, including Youth Employment UK chief executive Laura-Jane Rawlings, who said without “drastic change” the total would surpass one million.
She said: “Young people who experience time NEET are at risk from significant scarring, both in terms of their health and wellbeing but also in the economic opportunities they will have across their lives – the wider cost to the economy is significant.”
Reducing the UK’s NEET rate to levels recorded in some other developed countries could generate savings of up to £69 billion for the economy, Youth Employment UK estimates.
Minister for employment Alison McGovern said: “I am determined that no one will be left on the scrapheap, regardless of where they live: that is my message to the almost one million young people not in education, employment or training.”
“Our Get Britain Working reforms will deliver genuine opportunity by transforming Jobcentres, ensuring every young person has the chance to earn or learn, and joining up fragmented work, health and skills support.”
“This is how we will unlock the potential of our future generations and make everyone better off.”
The ONS figures come three months after publication of Labour’s Get Britain Working white paper, which outlines plans to cut the UK’s “ballooning” benefits bill by raising the employment rate from 74.8 to 80 per cent.
Plans set out by the government include eight “youth guarantee” areas, £240 million for “skills, work and health” support programmes, merging the National Careers Service with job centres and £115 million for the Connect to Work scheme.
Ahead of the white paper’s publication, news reports based on briefings from government sources suggested people could face sanctions if they refused employment support, but details failed to materialise in the final draft.
Chief executive of Learning and Work Institute Stephen Evans said the youth NEET figures were the “highest in a decade” and represented a “further worrying rise, particularly for young men”, who make up 55 per cent of the total.
Men account for 65 per cent of the 392,000 young people who are unemployed.
Youth Futures Foundation CEO Barry Fletcher warned mental health was “one of the most common” issues driving the economic inactivity numbers.
He said: “As the youth employment challenge worsens, it’s imperative we continue to expand the evidence base to find out what works, and ensure policymakers, employers and others put this evidence into action.”
However, Evans urged “caution” over the ONS estimates, which are labelled as “official statistics in development.”
In a footnote on strengths and limitations of the latest youth NEET estimates, the ONS said: “Results from sample surveys are always estimates and not precise figures. This can have an impact on how changes in the estimates should be interpreted, especially for short-term comparisons.”
Response rates to the survey faced a “sharp drop” to a lowest point of 17.4 per cent in 2023, rising to 24.6 per cent for July to September 2024.
In a letter addressing concerns raised by MPs on Parliament’s Treasury Committee, the ONS’ national statistician Sir Ian Diamond said the office can “no longer rely on surveys” but admitted reform to the survey is unlikely to happen this year.
He added that implementing the online-first “transformed labour force survey” was a “difficult and challenging experience” for many staff at the statistics authority, affecting wellbeing and confidence “at all levels” of the organisation.
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